Bitfinex Alpha 166
Bitfinex Alpha 166
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BTC C onsolidates and Leverage
Drops as Market Awaits a Catalyst
Bitcoin has decisively broken below its local range support at $115,800 after
multiple retests over the past three weeks, hitting a low of $112,210. This
breakdown coincides with a broader de-risking across the crypto complex,
particularly in altcoins, where leverage had been aggressively building. The
OTHERS index—representing the broader altcoin market, but excluding the top 10
coins by market capitalisation, has suffered an 18.7 percent drawdown over the
past 10 days, erasing nearly $59 billion in market cap before rebounding on
Sunday.
Structurally, BTC still retains a position of relative strength, with a market cap
above $2.2 trillion—double its 2021 cycle peak, while ETH and altcoins remain
below prior highs. This divergence underscores BTCʼs growing role as a
macro-resilient, institutionally driven asset, in contrast to the speculative fragility
of the broader market. With ETF flows cooling, Fed policy turning more hawkish,
and risk appetite waning, we expect consolidation or further downside unless
aggressive spot buying re-emerges. While a technical bounce from the $112,000
area is plausible, broader recovery likely hinges on renewed demand via
institutional flows or a clear macro catalyst.
The latest economic data from the United States highlights growing fragility
beneath seemingly resilient headline figures. Juneʼs inflation report revealed
persistent price pressures, largely driven by new tariffs that lifted the cost of
goods like furniture, clothing, and recreational items.
Excluding trade and inventories, real GDP grew just 1.2 percent, pointing to
stagnation in business investment and slowing consumer activity. Meanwhile,
Julyʼs job report added to the gloom: hiring slowed to just 73,000 new jobs,
unemployment ticked up to 4.2 percent, and labour force participation continued
to drop. Sectors like construction and hospitality underperformed despite
seasonal tailwinds, while a drop in foreign-born workers reflected the drag of
tightened immigration policies. These trends collectively complicate the Federal
Reserveʼs policy outlook. With inflation sticky and labour momentum fading, the
Fed is likely to delay rate cuts, awaiting clearer signals before adjusting its
stance.
6
Bitcoin Breaches Range Lows While
Altcoins Capitulate
The major concern for Bitcoin over recent weeks has been its repeated tests of the local
three-week range lows near $115,800. Price action finally resolved to the downside late last
week, following persistent weakness in BTC markets as order flow and open interest data,
showed aggressive rotation of speculative risk toward Ethereum and other altcoins.
The move to a low of $112,210 early on August 4th signals a shift in market structure and
increasing downside vulnerability. Interestingly, this break did not translate into a sustained
altcoin bid—quite the opposite. The OTHERS index, which tracks the broader altcoin market
excluding the top 10 coins by market capitalisation, has also dropped 18.7 percent over the past
10 days before rebounding slightly, highlighting a rapid de-risking across the high-beta
segments of the market.
This capitulation in altcoins alongside Bitcoinʼs weakness suggests that speculative appetite is now
receding across the board. With leverage elevated and sentiment turning cautious, the broader
market appears to be entering a consolidation or corrective phase. Bitcoinʼs loss of range support
could now act as resistance, and a period of reduced volatility and consolidation may follow unless
ETF flows or macro catalysts reassert strong directional momentum.
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Figure 2. Total Altcoin Market Capitalisation Hourly Chart. Source: CryptoCap)
The OTHERS index, which tracks the total market capitalisation of all altcoins outside the top 10
crypto assets, has now shed approximately $59 billion in value, marking an 18.7 percent drawdown
from its recent highs. This contraction signals a clear waning of speculative appetite in the altcoin
sector, which had seen a rapid expansion of open interest throughout July, even as BTC remained
trapped within a tight trading range.
While BTC has declined 8.9 percent from its all-time high of $123,120, ETH is down 15.1 percent from
its recent local peak, closing last week 9.7 percent lower. The broader altcoin market, represented
by the OTHERS index, fared even worse, closing the week 11.5 percent in the red, and now standing
18.7 percent below its cycle highs.
Over the past two trading weeks, there are however two large cap trading assets that are in the
green, namely ENA 14.5 percent) and PENGU 8.4 percent) both with market agnostic narratives
leading the surge and are also both down from their recent peaks. Refer Figure 3
Figure 3. High Volume Major Assets Relative Price Change Over Two Trading Weeks.
Source: Velo)
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What is particularly notable here is the structural divergence in performance between BTC and the
rest of the crypto asset class. Despite recent selling pressure, BTCʼs market capitalisation remains
above $2.2 trillion, nearly double its 2021 cycle peak. Meanwhile, ETH and the aggregate altcoin
market has failed to surpass their 2021 highs, reflecting a more cautious market stance towards
high-beta and less mature assets.
This divergence underscores BTCʼs growing role as a macro-resilient, institutional-grade asset, while
highlighting that the broader altcoin market still lacks the sustained capital rotation and structural
demand necessary to break out of its historical range. Until this changes, altcoin rallies are likely to
remain short-lived and vulnerable to broader market pullbacks.
On Saturday, August 2nd, daily liquidations across major centralised exchanges surpassed $1 billion,
marking a potential peak in the steadily rising trend of forced unwinds. This follows several weeks
where average daily liquidations across all assets have consistently hovered above $350 million,
reflecting growing leverage and risk appetite across the crypto market.
Figure 4. Total Liquidations Across All Trading Pairs Across All Major Exchanges.
Source: Coinglass)
Of the total liquidations on August 2nd, over $922 million were long positions, underscoring how
quickly market sentiment can reverse when price momentum stalls or flips. While BTC accounted for
the largest share, ETH long liquidations made up the majority of the remaining figure—highlighting
how leveraged traders had aggressively chased upside, particularly in ETH, following its recent
underperformance earlier in the cycle.
This event adds further evidence that the market is in a highly reactive phase, with leverage-heavy
positioning increasing the likelihood of sharp liquidations both ways. Such episodes often act as
cleansing events, resetting open interest and positioning before establishing a new trend direction.
We expect a small bounce from the local lows of $112,210 since the market is overextended to the
downside. However, until we see aggressive spot market buying and strong ETF flows, it would be
prudent to not expect the downtrend to reverse especially with a hawkish Fed and other macro
headwinds looming over BTC.
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Such environments, characterised by elevated leverage and concentrated positioning tend to be
reflexive, with price action amplifying sentiment and vice versa. It also means that the market
becomes more vulnerable to liquidation cascades, sharp reversals, and exaggerated volatility. If
momentum stalls or unexpected macro or regulatory news emerges, this leverage can unwind
rapidly, potentially exacerbating downside moves across the altcoin complex.
In short, while speculative enthusiasm is clearly returning, this build-up in leverage suggests that the
market is entering a more fragile phase where risk management becomes increasingly important.
10
GENERAL MACRO
UPDATE
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Tariff-Driven Inflation Pressures Delay
Fed Rate Cuts as Consumer Spending
Shows Signs of Strain
US inflation accelerated in June, driven largely by rising import costs due to tariffs, and further
complicating the Federal Reserveʼs path toward easing interest rates. The June Personal Income
and Outlays report, released last Thursday, July 31st, revealed a persistent rise in goods prices,
while consumer spending showed early signs of weakening, raising questions about the
durability of economic momentum in the second half of the year.
According to the report, the personal consumption expenditures PCE) price index—the Fedʼs
preferred inflation measure—rose 0.3 percent in June, following an upwardly revised 0.2 percent in
May. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation reached 2.6 percent, up from 2.4 percent in May.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE inflation was up 2.8 percent year-over-year.
The increase in prices was especially pronounced in tariff-sensitive sectors. Durable household
items such as furniture saw the biggest jump since March 2022, rising 1.3 percent. Recreational
goods and vehicles climbed 0.9 percent, while clothing and footwear rose 0.4 percent. These
categories were hit hardest by the import duties that took effect earlier this year. Meanwhile, energy
prices reversed a four-month decline, rising 0.9 percent in June.
Goods prices overall posted a 0.4 percent monthly gain—the fastest since January—while services
prices increased 0.2 percent for the fourth consecutive month. Auto prices were a notable
exception, falling in June. However, this decline reflects reduced demand rather than lower input
costs, suggesting inflationary pressures from tariffs may continue.
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The rise in prices comes amid relatively steady consumer spending, which rose 0.3 percent in
nominal terms in June after being flat in May. Yet when adjusted for inflation, real consumer
spending increased by just 0.1 percent, indicating that households are starting to pull back. Durable
goods spending was especially affected, falling 0.5 percent in real terms despite flat nominal growth.
Figure 6. Personal Income and Related Measures Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Wage and compensation income also showed signs of softening, posting a modest 0.1 percent
increase—the smallest monthly gain in nearly a year. While the labour market remains stable, with
initial jobless claims edging up slightly and the number of continued benefit recipients holding
steady at 1.946 million, businesses appear hesitant to expand headcount amid economic uncertainty
and rising costs.
According to the BEAʼs advance GDP report for the second quarter, consumer spending grew at a 1.4
percent annualised rate, while headline GDP rose by 3 percent—largely boosted by a sharp drop in
imports that narrowed the trade deficit. However, this figure overstates the true strength of the
economy, as much of the growth stems from trade-related distortions rather than robust domestic
demand. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted income growth has stalled, with real PCE up 0.1 percent, and
signs of financial strain are emerging, particularly among middle- and lower-income households who
are more vulnerable to price shocks.
The Federal Reserve, which held interest rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent last Wednesday, now
faces a more complex policy environment. Chair Jerome Powell emphasised a cautious approach,
citing the rise in inflation expectations and ongoing price pressures—particularly from tariffs—as
reasons to hold steady. He reiterated that the current policy rate remains “modestly restrictiveˮ and
stressed the need for more clarity before any policy adjustment, effectively setting a high bar for a
September rate cut.
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With inflation proving stickier and spending losing momentum, the Fed may delay monetary easing
to avoid reigniting price pressures. Policymakers are expected to wait for clearer signs that current
inflationary dynamics are temporary before adjusting their stance.
In the meantime, consumers—especially those outside the higher-income bracket—are feeling the
squeeze. With discretionary spending slowing, the economic outlook for the remainder of 2025
remains clouded by the dual risks of persistent inflation and a cooling labour market.
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US Job Market Shows Deep Cracks in
July as Trade and Immigration Policies
Weigh on Growth
The US labour market cooled significantly in July, with hiring slowing and unemployment inching
upward, reflecting the growing toll of restrictive trade and immigration policies. According to the
US Department of Laborʼs Employment Situation Summary released last Friday, August 1st, the
economy added just 73,000 jobs last month, while job figures for May and June were revised
down by a staggering 258,000, signalling the weakest employment stretch since the pandemic
era.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent, up from 4.1 percent in June, as household employment
fell and 38,000 workers exited the labour force. A key contributor was the loss of 341,000
foreign-born workers, driven by a crackdown on immigration that continues to ripple across
industries reliant on migrant labour, including construction, hospitality, and manufacturing.
Hiring remained highly concentrated in a few sectors. Health care and social assistance accounted
for nearly all of July's net gains, adding over 73,300 jobs. Outside of that, growth was uneven. The
financial sector and retail trade posted moderate increases, adding 15,000 and 16,000 jobs
respectively. Meanwhile, professional services shed 14,000 jobs, and manufacturing and wholesale
trade also saw net losses. Government employment fell by another 12,000 positions, extending a
trend that began earlier this year.
Construction added only 2,000 jobs in July, while leisure and hospitality—typically buoyed by
summer demand—posted just 5,000 new positions. These weak numbers are particularly concerning
given the seasonally favourable conditions, and point to deeper structural issues.
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Figure 8. Labor Force Participation Rate, US Unemployment Chart Source: Macromicro)
The labour force participation rate fell to 62.2 percent, now down for three consecutive months. The
employment-to-population ratio eased to 59.6 percent. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed
individuals rose by 221,000 to 7.23 million, and the median duration of unemployment increased to
10.2 weeks—signs that job seekers are finding it harder to re-enter the workforce.
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3 percent in July and 3.9 percent from a year earlier. This
increase can be attributed to tight labour conditions caused by a shrinking workforce. However, the
shift toward more part-time jobs and rising long-term unemployment suggests wage growth may not
reflect broader economic strength.
Figure 9. US Average Effective Tariff Rate Since 1790 Source: The Budget Lab)
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Over the past three months, job creation has averaged only 35,000 per month—down sharply from
123,000 a year ago. Employers face growing uncertainty amid steep tariffs and unpredictable
immigration enforcement. Despite recent trade agreements, the effective tariff rate remains the
highest since the 1930s. President Trumpʼs latest move to impose a 35 percent duty on a wide range
of Canadian imports has added further strain to global supply chains and domestic businesses.
The implications for monetary policy are becoming more complex. Although the Federal Reserve
kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent during its meeting last
Wednesday, recent labour market weakness has reopened the debate over a potential rate cut in
September. However, inflation remains elevated—particularly in tariff-sensitive categories—creating
conflicting signals for policymakers. These crosscurrents between persistent price pressures and
cooling job growth highlight the growing uncertainty around the Fedʼs next move.
Tariff-induced inflation continues to push prices higher, and the Fed may choose to wait for clearer
signals from the next round of employment and inflation reports before adjusting policy. Recent
reports suggest that the economy is under pressure from multiple directions, including a shrinking
labour supply, subdued demand, and elevated price levels. With job creation slipping below the
threshold needed to match population growth, and business confidence rattled by policy uncertainty,
the US economy may be entering a fragile phase where growth risks falling behind while inflation
lingers at an uncomfortably high level.
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US GDP Rose 3 Percent in Q2But
Underlying Data Reveals a Much Slower
Economic Reality
Economic growth in the US appeared strong in the second quarter of 2025, with gross domestic
product GDP) rising at a 3 percent annualised pace according to the Gross Domestic Product
report released by the Commerce Departmentʼs Bureau of Economic Analysis last Wednesday,
July 30th. However, closer analysis reveals that the headline figure overstates the economyʼs
true strength, as much of the increase was driven by a sharp drop in imports rather than solid
domestic demand.
The GDP report showed that net exports contributed 4.99 percentage points to growth in the second
quarter—the largest contribution since records began in 1947, following a drag of 4.61 points in the
previous quarter. This sharp swing reflects trade distortions caused by the governmentʼs aggressive
tariff policies, not an actual improvement in economic activity. When excluding trade, inventories,
and government spending—using the more stable metric known as final sales to private domestic
purchasers—growth came in at a modest 1.2 percent, the slowest pace since late 2022.
This weaker underlying growth points to an economy grappling with rising uncertainty. Business
investment slowed markedly, consumer spending remained moderate, and residential investment
shrank for the second straight quarter. At the same time, personal consumption expenditures rose by
just 1.4 percent, with most gains coming from goods like vehicles—likely driven by preemptive
buying ahead of new tariffs.
The decline in imports, which fell at a record 30.3 percent annualised rate, flattered the GDP figures
by shrinking the trade deficit. Meanwhile, inventories fell sharply, subtracting 3.17 percentage points
from growth. These two volatile components—trade and inventories—created misleading volatility
between the first and second quarters. Taking the average of both quarters GDP, growth is trending
closer to a 1.2 percent pace, well below the Federal Reserveʼs 1.8 percent estimate of long-run,
non-inflationary growth.
The data also showed signs of strain among consumers. While middle- and upper-income
households continue to support spending, rising delinquencies, high borrowing costs, and slowing
wage growth are putting pressure on their finances. Lower-income households, who are more
vulnerable to the inflationary impact of tariffs, are already feeling the squeeze.
On the business side, equipment investment slowed to 4.8 percent growth from over 23 percent in
the first quarter. Construction of factories and other structures declined again, and homebuilding
dropped 4.6 percent, weighed down by elevated mortgage rates.
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Federal government spending contracted for the second consecutive quarter, driven by cuts in
non-defence categories. State and local spending was the only bright spot in public outlays, rising 3
percent and helping offset a 3.7 percent drop in federal expenditures.
Even as GDP appears to rebound from the 0.5 percent contraction in the first quarter, itʼs important
to remain cautious. Taken together with rising inflation pressures and a cooling labour market, the
GDP data reinforces a broader theme: headline numbers are masking real economic fragility.
Consumption is weakening beneath the surface, investment is slowing, and employment is losing
momentum—all while inflation remains uncomfortably persistent. These conflicting signals place the
Federal Reserve in a holding pattern, with no easy path forward. As 2025 progresses, the economy
appears caught between stagnation and inflation—an uneasy balance that continues to cloud the
outlook for growth and monetary policy alike.
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NEWS FROM THE
CRYPTOSPHERE
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SharpLink Gaming Accelerates Ethereum
Treasury with $295M Acquisition
Figure 13. SharpLink Gaming Accelerates Ethereum Treasury with $295M Acquisition
Source: https://www.sharplink.com/)
● SharpLink Gaming acquired 77,210 ETH worth $295M in a single week, bringing its total
holdings to over 438,000 ETH and making it the second-largest corporate Ethereum holder
globally
● With aggressive capital raises, staking strategies, and institutional leadership, SharpLink
is positioning Ethereum as a core asset in its long-term treasury model
Nasdaq-listed SharpLink Gaming, chaired by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, has dramatically
expanded its corporate Ethereum reserves by acquiring 77,210 ETH, valued at approximately $295
million, according to on-chain analytics from Lookonchain. This single-week purchase pushes the
firmʼs total ETH holdings to over 438,000, currently worth around $1.69 billion. That figure places
SharpLink as the second-largest corporate Ethereum treasury holder globally, second only to
BitMine Immersion with its 566,000 ETH total holdings.
In a notable detail, this acquisition alone exceeds Ethereumʼs net monthly issuance of 72,795 ETH,
highlighting SharpLinkʼs aggressive accumulation pace. The ETH acquired has been staked via
Figment, a staking services provider, in over 3,200 staking batches, reflecting the companyʼs
strategic focus on yield generation rather than passive holding.
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This milestone follows the recent appointment of Joseph Chalom, a former BlackRock executive, as
co-CEO, reinforcing the firm's institutional ambitions. Chalom is tasked with overseeing SharpLinkʼs
multi-billion–dollar treasury expansion plan, which includes increasing stock operations from
$1 billion to $6 billion to fund ongoing ETH acquisitions.
SharpLinkʼs innovative treasury model combines capital raises, frequent ETH purchases—even
exceeding issuance levels—and staking yields. As part of its market commentary on X, the firm
emphasised its always-on, crypto-native operations: “Banks close on weekends. Ethereum runs
24/7.ˮ. The strategy has notably contributed to significant stock performance, with SBET shares
surging in recent months in line with market enthusiasm around institutional crypto exposure
SharpLink Gamingʼs $295 million ETH buy continues its rapid ascent in corporate crypto treasury
rankings and underscores a broader institutional shift toward Ethereum as a strategic asset. With
robust leadership, repetitive capital deployment, and active staking, SharpLink is positioning
Ethereum at the core of its long-term financial strategy.
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SEC Chair Paul Atkins Unveils “Project
Cryptoˮ Initiative: US to Lead in Digital
Finance Revolution
Figure 14. SEC Chair Paul Atkins Unveils “Project Cryptoˮ Initiative
● SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins unveiled “Project Crypto,ˮ a major regulatory overhaul to
create clear, principles-based rules for digital assets, enabling tokenised traditional assets,
DeFi integration, and licensed crypto “super-appsˮ
● The shift marks a break from enforcement-driven policy, aiming to attract crypto innovation
back to the US and reestablish the countryʼs leadership in global financial innovation
In an address delivered last Thursday, July 31st, US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman
Paul S. Atkins laid out a bold new regulatory agenda under the banner of “American Leadership in the
Digital Finance Revolution,ˮ signalling a dramatic shift in the SECʼs approach toward cryptocurrencies
and blockchain-based finance. Central to this initiative is the rollout of “Project Crypto,ˮ a
comprehensive regulatory transformation aimed at modernising US capital markets and embracing
digital asset innovation.
Atkins emphasized that the SEC will now develop clear, principles-based guidelines to determine
when crypto tokens qualify as securities, commodities, stablecoins, or other asset types—moving
away from enforcement-led ambiguity toward transparent rules of the road. Under Project Crypto,
the agency will facilitate tokenised offerings of traditional assets—including stocks and bonds—and
align disclosure requirements with new digital fundraising methods such as ICOs, airdrops, and
network rewards.
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The strategy also envisions the creation of “super-appsˮ—platforms authorised under a single
license to offer a full suite of services, including trading, staking, and lending—integration of
decentralised finance DeFi protocols into regulated markets, and the promotion of self-custody as
a foundational American value.
Atkins reaffirmed the SECʼs alignment with President Trumpʼs Executive Order and the White Houseʼs
Working Group report, championing the agencyʼs new role in executing policy to make the US the
global leader in financial innovation.
Industry reaction has been overwhelmingly positive, with analysts noting that Project Crypto marks a
reversal of the SECʼs previous enforcement-heavy posture, potentially attracting crypto companies
back to the US and unlocking broader market participation in token-based fundraising. Many
observers describe the shift as a generational opportunity for US capital markets to integrate
on-chain infrastructure and reclaim preeminence in the next era of financial innovation.
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DevvStream Allocates $10M to Solana
and Bitcoin as Part of New Crypto
Treasury Strategy
Figure 15. DevvStream Allocates $10M to Solana and Bitcoin as Part of New Crypto Treasury
Strategy
● DevvStream has invested $10 million into Bitcoin and Solana as part of a broader crypto
treasury strategy, funded by a $300 million convertible notes raise
● The company aims to expand its credit line to support further crypto purchases and green
infrastructure, aligning with its mission of carbon credit innovation and sustainability-linked
tokenisation
Nasdaq-listed carbon management company DevvStream Corp. (ticker: DEVS) has launched its crypto
treasury initiative, allocating $10 million into Solana SOL) and Bitcoin BTC, according to a statement released
Friday, August 1st. The investment comes after the firm raised $300 million through senior secured convertible
notes specifically intended for cryptocurrency acquisition.
As part of a growing trend among publicly traded companies, DevvStream joins others seeking to diversify
their treasury holdings through digital assets. This shift is often funded through equity and debt offerings, a
strategy popularised by Bitcoin-focused firms like Strategy.
In its announcement, DevvStream emphasised its strategic rationale: “The Company believes Bitcoin provides
a liquid, non-correlated store of value and that Solanaʼs high-throughput network supports the Companyʼs
long-term objectives in and the industryʼs move towards sustainability-linked tokenisationˮ
The company also revealed it is pursuing an expansion of its existing equity line of credit with Helena Global
Investment Opportunities to $300 million. The additional funding would support further crypto acquisitions and
accelerate investments in both digital and environmental infrastructure.
Established in 2021, DevvStream provides carbon credits to companies involved in renewable energy, energy
efficiency upgrades, and forest conservation. Carbon credits are tradeable units, each representing one metric
ton of carbon dioxide emissions either avoided or removed. Within the blockchain space, there's a growing
belief that tokenising these credits could improve transparency and liquidity for companies aiming to offset
their emissions.
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