Basic PROBABILITY mT Chapter (esioiekon asa) {]1-1. Introduction to Probability 1.2. Classical Definition of probability 1.3. Theorems on Probability .4. Conditional Probability 1.5. Random Variable and Probability Distribution 1.6. Discrete Randam Variable 7. Discrete Probability Distribution 1.8. Probability Function or Probability Mass Function (pmf) .9. Cumulative Distribution Function (Distribution Function) 1.10. Expectation of a Discrete Random Variable 26. Conditions Under which Poisson Distribution is Used 1.27. Mean of Poisson Distribution 1.28. Variance 3s0n Distribution 1.29. Mode of Poisson Distribution 1.30. Recurrence Formula for the Poisson Distribution 1.31. Moment of Random Variable 1.32. Relation Between r"” Moment of Random Variable and r" Central | Moment of Random Variable 1.33. Moment Generating Function 1.34. Properties of Moment Generating ction 1.95. Effect of Change of Origin and Scale on m.git. 1.38. Multinomial Distribution 1.37. Moments of itinomial Distribution 1.38. Markov's Inequality 1.39. Generalized Markov's Inequality 1.40. Chebyshev’s ality 1.41. Weak Law Large Number (WLLN) ODUCTION TO PROBABILITY Nghance’, and "probability" are quite familiar to us. Statements like. "He or She may with good marks’, "Probability that it may rain today", convey the sense of the occurrence of some event. Ordinarily, it appears that there eannot be any exact, put in Mathematical Statistics, we do have methods for calculating umerical value, under certain conditions. in science and engineering, repeatedly under identical conditions, so exist experiments in which the outcome may be different even dentical conditions. In such experiments, the outcome of each as an experiment in which all the possible outcomes are is exercised. Throwing of an unbiased coin is a random ice., head or tail may come up. Similarly, throwing of an of the six faces of the die may come up. In this experiment, © scanned with OKEN Scanner® scanned with OKEN Scanner© scanned with OKEN Scanner® Scanned with OKEN Scanner——— 4 Pr i Sr (i) Next, one white ball out of 4 can be drawn in *C, ways, one ed ball can be drawn in 5C; way and one back ball in ”C, ways: what is more, each case of drawing a white ball can be associated wit each case of drawing a read ball and each case of drawing a black ball. Hence, the total number of favourable ways = 4C, x 5C, x 7C,=4 x 5x 7=140 oe eee ~ c, ~ 560 7 4" Example 1.4. If3 of 20 tyres in storage are defective and 4 of them are randomly chosen for inspection (i.e., each tyre has the same chance of being selected), what is the probability that only ‘one of the defective tyres will be included? Solution. Given that defective tyres are 3. Then non-defective tyres are 20 ~3 = 17 Hence, the required probability Selecting of 4 tyres from 20, which contains one defective is *C, x "C, ways Also the number of possible cases are *C, cx", +. The required probability = aS - Slo (Here we are selecting 1 defective tyre from 3 tyres that can be done in °C, ways and remaining tyres can be taken ftom 17 non-defective tyres in ""C, ways.) Example 1.5. What is the probability that a non-leap year contains 53 Sundays? Solution. A non-leap year consists of 365 days. Of these, there are 52 complete weeks and 1 extra day, That day may be any one of the 7 days. So already we have 52 Sundays. For one more Sunday, the probability that getting a one more Sunday is 1/7. Hence, the probability that a non-leap year contains 53 Sundays is 1/7. THEOREMS ON PROBABILITY There are two important theorems of probability, namely: 1, The addition theorem or the theorem on total probability. 2. The multiplication theorem or theorem on compound probability. 1,3.1, Addition Theorem or the Theorem on Total Probability ‘Statement : If 4 and B are two mutually exclusive and equally likely events of a random ex, the probability of occurrence of the events "4 or B" is the sum of the probabilities of the event A and B hey P(AorB) = P(4) + P(B) or P(A+B) = P(4)+ P(B) © scanned with OKEN ScannerBasic PROBABILITY. 5 Proof. Let there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely cases. Out of the total cases let m, cases be favourable to event A and m, cases favourable to the event B. Therefore, total number of cases which are favourable to either A or B are (m, +m). Hence, P(AorB) = PUA+ B)= 22 = Th = P(A)+ P(B) = Sum of the probabilities of the event A and B. Notes: 1. The theorem can be extended to events. A, B, C, D ... ie., P(A+B+C+D+...) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+P(D)+.... 2 As a particular case, when the events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then there will be some outcomes, or cases which favour both A and B together and suppose this happens in m, ways (this is included in both m, and m, favourable to A and B respectively). Thus, the total number of cases favouring either A or B both is m, + m, ~ my Hence the probability of occur- rence of A and B or both is given by Pat By AMM Thy Tht = PA) + PCB)—PUAB) where P(AB) represents the probability of both A and B happening together. It may be noted that when A and B are mutually exclusive then P (AB) = 0. 3. P(A + B+ C= P(A) + P(B) + P(C)— P(AB) — P(BC) ~ P(CA) + P(ACB) Here events A, B and C are not mutually exclusive. In case 4, B and C are mutually exclusive, we have P(AB) = P(BC) = P(CA) = P(ABC)=0 Thus, P(A + B+ C)= P(A)+ P(B)+P(C) 1.3.2. Theorem on Multiplication of Probabities or Compound Probability Statement. The probability of the occurence of two independent events is the product of their separate probabilities ie., ‘ ; PUB) = PA). PB) ; Proof. Let the two independent events be A and B. Let the events A succeed in m, ways and fail in 1m, ways, and the event B succeed in m, ways and fail in m, ways, all the ways in both the events A and B being equally likely. Now there are (m, +,) ways in event A and (m, + n,) ways in event B. Each of the (m, +n,) ways can be associated with each of (m, + n,) ways. Thus in their simultaneous happening, the total number of ways are (m, + n,) (m, + n,). Out of these total number of ways, we have m, m, ways in which both the events succeed. Hence, the probability that both the events succeed is i - (a +e) (m,+1,)(m, +n) \™%*™ +My = Product of the probabilities of success of the two events. or P(AB) = P(A). PB) This is also true for any number of events say A, B, C, Dy nnn Thus P(ABCD) = P(A). P(B). P(C). P(D)PROBABILITY AND Staristicg Notes: 1. If P(4A) =p,, P(B) =p, then P\AB) = p, ps ie, probability of happening or success of events A and B is equal to p, * p,, Ifp, is the probability of 4's success, then g, = 1 ~p, is the probability of 4's failure. 3. Probability that 4 succeeds and B fails = p, * (1 —p2) isp; . . Probability that B succeeds and B fails = p, x (1 —P, Probability that both A and B fails = (1 — p,) * (1 - Probability that atleast one events succeeds = Probability that both the event 4 and B succeed + probability that 4 succeeds and B fails + probability that B succeeds and 4 fails, = Py P2* Py 92 * P2 Mi = Pi P2* Pi (1 —P2) + P2 (1 —p) = 1-(1=p,) (1=p.)= 1-9) 4 1 ~ the probability that both the events fail 7. Ifevents 4 and B are not independent, P(4B) = P(A). P(B/A). Repeated Trials If the probability of the happening of an event in one trial is p, then the probability of its happening exactly 'r' times in 'n' trials is given by "C_p’q"” , where q (= 1 —p) is the probability of failure. The chance of happening r times and failing (n — r) times is given by (p x p * .....) r times x (qxq~ (nr) times = p’ x q”~". ‘Now the number of combinations of n-things into two groups of r and (n — r) things mr an" ‘Thus the chance of exactly 'r' successes and '(n —r) failure in 'n' trials = "C,p’q" or PO= "CO pig Similarly, P() = Probability of 'n' successes and no failure in trials = Cin” P(0)= probability of no success and n failures = "C,q" and PO) = "pq" PQ) = "C,p*q"* PO) nigh? Disely eater g Thus, we see that in the expansion of (q +p)" first erm gives the change of 1 success and (n— 1) failure, last term given n successes and no failure, i gives the chance of no success second term third term give 2 successes and (n —2) failure, and the as q+ py" = "Coq" +" 1" P+ "Caq™*p? + "Cg". pd 4. + "Cg" p, +..4"C,PsBasic PROBABILITY [Bl SOLVED ExamPLes a 9 SS SS Example 1.6. Find the probability of drawing a card from a well shuffled pack such that the drawn card is either a king or queen. Solution. The events that the card drawn is either a king or queen are mutually exclusive events. Let the event of the king card drawn be denoted by A and the queen card drawn be denoted by B. A pack containing 52 cards will have 4 kings and 4 queens. ee aes Hence, PA) = =, PUB) 53 de: a+ 2 is the required result. P(4+B)= P(A) + P(B)= 1 Example 1.7. If the probability of the horse 4 winning the race is = and the probability of 1 the horse B winning the same race is ¢ , what is the probability that one of the horses will win the race? Solution. Probability of winning of the horse A = : L Probability of winning of the horse B = P(A+B) =P(A)+P(B)= 3 Example 1.8. Two dice are thrown together. Find the probability that the sum of divisible by 2or3. olution. Let the event "that the sum is divisible by 2" be denoted by A and the event "that the sum is divisible by 3" be denoted by B. ‘Total number of pairs = 6 x 6 = 36 which are = (1) 2,1) G1) 4) 6.1) (6,1) (i, 2) (2,2) G,2) (4,2) (5, 2) (6,2) (1,3) 2,3) G, 3) (4,3) (5,3) (6, 3) a4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5, 4) (6,4) ney (2,4) G,4) 4,4) (5, 5) (6,5) (1, 6) (2, 6) (3, 6) (4, 6) (5, 6) (6, 6) A :(1, 1), (1,3) (1, 5), 2, 2) (2,4), (2, 6), (3, 1) (3, 3) (3, 5), (4, 2), (4, 4), (4, 6) (5, 1), (S, 3) (S, 5) (6, 2) (6, 4) (6, 6) = 18 pairs B: (1,2), (1,5), 2, 1), 2 4) G; 3) (3, 6) (4, 2), (4, 5) (5, 1) (5, 4), (6, 3) (6, 6) = 12 pairs. The points common to the events A and Bare (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3) (4, 2) (5, 1), (6, 6) = 6 pairs.© scanned with OKEN Scanner© Scanned with OKEN Scanner10 : PROBABILITY AND rang 2,6 _12 (ii) The first ball is white and second also white arr As (i), (i), (iii) are mutually exclusive, and also exhaustive, therefore, the required Probability 10, 30,12 32 Tima ieaT a Example 1.13. If 5% of items manufactured by a machine are defective, find the chance that out of a sample selected at random of 7 items, not more than one item will be defective, Solution. Let p be the probability of the item being defective, 19 20 Required probability = No item defective + One item defective 19) | (19¥ (4 “9 ser-(3) “(5) een, 8,2) .(2).8 ~ \20, 20° 20) \20) 20 then Note. In the above problem "defective is a success" and "not defective" is a failure. Example 1.14. Two aeroplanes bomb a target in succession. The probability of each correctly scoring a hit is 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. The second will bomb only if the first misses the target. Find the probability that : (the traget is hit (ii) both fails to score hits. Solution. Let A be the event that represents the Ist aeroplane and B represents the 2nd aeroplane. Given that P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.2 which gives P(A) = 0.7 and P(B) =0.8 Now () The probability that the target is hit = P(Ahits the target) + P(A misses the target) P(B hits the target) = 0.3+0.7 x 0.2=0.44 (ii) The probability that both fail = P(A misses the target) P(B misses the target) = 0.7« 0.8 =0.56 © scanned with OKEN Scanner© scanned with OKEN Scanner© scanned with OKEN Scanner© Scanned with OKEN Scanner© Scanned with OKEN Scanner© Scanned with OKEN ScannerOBABLITY AND Sy ae Example 1.2 in succession from a box containing 10 red, 39 Ba RIReaieciae aks Siar aslocessat WORE sae ier wach drawing, Faas Probability that : @ both are white and @) Girst is red the second is white. Solution. Given that box contains 10 red, 30 white, 20 blue and 15 orange marbles. So that the togy marbles are 75. Both are white: P(getting first marble is white) = and 30 P (getting second marble is white) = 75° Since drawing is done with replacement +. The probability that both the balls are white = —=.—= = — (@) First is red and the second is white : 10 (getting first marble is red) = >> and ss see OOP: P(getting second marble is white) = 5° Since drawing is down with replacement - _ Bees 221030. 4 Ton Preity she fist ised and the second is white = 5-28 — + 4 Now the probability that atleast two of them hit the balloon is =P(ANBOC)+P(ANBE A 9*ANBNO)+PUABA a) icaget 1 which gives PUY = 5, PB) = Tani PC)=7 cPOFO RC EAE IPO+ PAD PB) PCC + PLA) P(E PC) wee ole (40842): (1 2 tet feted aba) (ten 5 = Seon @ scanned with OKEN ScannerBasic ProsasiuiTy ey, Example 1.25. In a class of 12 boys and 8 girls, three students are selected at random one after the other. Find the probability that: () first two are boys and third is girl (i) first and third are of the same sex and the second is of opposite sex. Solution. From the given data, the three students’ selection is done at random one after the other. In this class there are 12 boys and 8 girls. That number of students is 20. (i The probability the first two are boys and third is girl BANS ose 20°19 18 (ii) The probability that first and third are of the same sex and the second is of opposite sex is as follows BGB (here choosing first boy) or GBG (here choosing first girls) For the first case the probability of selecting B, G and B is BS Mo is44 Suan 20 For the second case the probability of selecting G, B and G is SBxT — 0.0082 20.19 18” BB OExercise 1.1 1. What is the probability of getting the king of hearts from a pack of cards at least once in 52 cards. a respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved? [ans] 3, What is the change that a: (i) non-leap year, (if) leap year should have fifty three Sundays. 4. Anum contain 5 red and 10 black balls. Eight of them are placed in another urn. What is the change that the latter contains 2 red and 6 black balls? 5. Acommittee consists of 9 students two of which are from Ist year, three from 2nd year and four from 3rd year. Three students are to be removed at random. What is the change that: (i) the three students belong to different classes. (ii) two belong to the same class and third to the different class, and se i (iii) the three belong to the same class? [ans.05.c0 ra | @ scanned with OKEN Scanner1 li 6 Five men in a company of twenty are graduates. If 3 men are packed out of 20 at random, wha, the probability that ; (® they are all graduates [Ans O37) (@) at least one is graduate? iS 7. Three cards are drawn at randow from an ordinary pack of 52 cards. Find the change that these x Ant!) cards of clubs. [ as5| 8. Find the probability of throwing 7 with two dice in a single throw. Is this probability the same 4 1 that of getting 7 in two throws of single die? [Anse 9. From 20 tickets marked from | to 20, one ticket is drawn at random. Find the probability that it is a marked with a multiple of 3 or 5. [ams3) 10. A bag contains 4 white, 5 green and 6 red balls. What is the probability that a ball drawn in either white or green? [Ans. 0.6) 11. From pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn. Find the probability that they are both kings if: (i the first card is not replaced, (i) itis replaced. 221 12. A student appears in an examination in four papers i, first, second, third and fourth. His probabilities 2453 of passing the papers are respectively 3~+¢+ . For qualifying the examination, he must passin first paper and at least two other papers. Find the chances that he qualifies the examination. 107 [amet] 13. There are five letters and five addressed envelopes. Determine the change that all the letters are not ae 19 dispatched in the right envelopes. [amet 14. The probability that aman 4 now aged 35 years will be live to 70 is 0.3 and that a man B now aged 45 years will live to 80 is 0.2, find the probability that at least one of these two persons will be alivé for 35 years hence. 15. The probability that a 50 years old man will be alive at 60 is 0.83 and the probability that a 45 yes" and woman will be alive at 55 is 0.87. Find the probability that both will be alive 10 years Dees s f [Ans. 0.72 16. A and B throw alternately with a pair of dice. The one who throws 9 first wins. Show that chances of their winning are 9 : 8. [Ans st. ct al @ scanned with OKEN Scanner——— sais is Bet 17. Five whole numbers are selected at random and are multiplied together, find the change that the last digit of the product is either 1, 3, 7, 9. [Hints: Last digit can be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 of the whole number.) 18. A pair of dice is toosed twice. Find the probability of the scoring 5 points: (/) once, (ii) at least once, (ii) twice. 4.8 7 =Sin one pair 3679 16.17 1 Ans.()—, (ii), (ii) — : [ ns.(i) wo, ang] [in 19, A committee of 4 persons is formed from a group containing,3 students 2 teachers and 4 engineers. Find the probability that the committee will have exactly two engineers. [ans 3 . Te leel 20, The change of solving a problem by four students are 45% Tespectively. Find the change that 2 the problem is solved. [ams.2 21. What is the probability of drawing five balls consisting of 3 red and 2 black balls from a bag 10 containing 6 red and 4 black balls. [ans 22. Find the probability of drawing 4 white, 3 back and 2 red balls from the urn containing 10 white, 4 Ans. 222. black and 3 red balls. oa 23, Find the probability of throwing : () Four, () an even number, i) multiple of3 with an ordinary six faced die. [amon 5000 | 24, The odds that a book will be favourably reviewed by three independent critics are S to 2, 4 and 3 fess respectively, what isthe probability that ofthe three reviews, a majority a majority will | 209 | be favourable. [ams 3 | 25, 4 and B throw altemately with apairof ordinary dice. A wins ofhe throws 6 before B throws 7 and +B wins if the throws 7 before A throws 6. If A begins, find their respective change of winning. [amt 3 6161 @ scanned with OKEN Scanner26, A speak truth in 75% cases and B in 80% cases. In what percentage of cases are contradict each other in stating the same fact? 27, Apurse contains 2 silver and 4 copper coins. A second purse contains 4 is pulled out a random from one of the two purses, what is the probal 28 A student takes his examination in four subjects P, Q, R, S. He estimates his chances of passing ix ® scanned with OKEN Scanner 4 3 s 2 P as Sin Qas J, in Ras © and in Sas >. To qualify, he must pass in P atleast two othe, 1 ‘subjects. What is the probability that the qualifies? [ans 29. Define a random experiment, sample space, event and mutually exclusive events. Give example of each. fia 1.4. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY Let A and B be two events associated with the same sample space of a random experiment. Then the Probability of occurrence of 4 under the condition that B has already occurred, at P(B) +0, is called conditional probability, denoted by P(4/B). P(ANB) _ n(ANB) ‘We define, PUB)= pp, mi)? NNEEP(B)# O and PBN A) PIBIA) = ~ pray P(ANB) = n(ANB) Sa PCAE Eo (A) » where, P (A) #0 11.4.1. Properties of Conditional Probability Let A and B be events of a sample space S of an experiment, then we have Property 1. P(SIB) = P(B/B)=1 PSB) _ PCB) ‘We know that PISB) = ~ pcp) PB) = PNB) _ PLB) ono PBB) =~ ra) iB) — | P(S/B) = P(B/B)=1 Se sr, csaaw POF) #0, then P(AUBYF)= P(A/F)+ P(B/F)-P(AN)B)/F) Jn particular, if A and B are disjoint events, then PUAUB)NF) P(AUB)IF) = PF)21 P(A/F) + P(B/F)~P(A(B)/F) When A and B are disjoi n P(A(\B)| F)= 0 = UB)\F) = PUIF) + PBIF) Property 3. P(E'IF) = 1 - P(EIF) From property 1, we know P(SIF)=1 => P(E UEIF) = 1 = P(EIF) + PEF) = 1 Since E and £’ are disjoint events Thus P(E/F) = 1 — P (E/F) [EL SOLVED EXAMPLES Ss S555 Example 1.26. A pair of dice is rolled, find P(4/B) if ‘A: 2 appears on atleast one dice. B: sum of numbers appearing on dice is 6. Solution. We have A= {(2,1) 2,2) 2,3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6) (1, 2) (3, 2) 4, 2) (5, 2) (6, 2)} B= {1,5)(2,4) (3,3) (4,2)6,)) AN B= (2,4) (4,2)} 2 P(A1) B) = 36 5 P(B)= 36 2 pans) 36 2 ‘Therefore, P(AIB)= ~ ppy = 5 = 5 36 Example 1.27. Two marbles are drawn successively from a box containing 3 black and 4 white marbles. Find the probability that both marbles are black if the first marble is not required before the second drawing. Solution. Let B, is the event of ‘drawing the first black marble. ® scanned with OKEN Scanner= a 22 _ PROBABILITY AND Spang re ' 3 Then, PB) = > Let B, be the event that the second marble drawn in black. Then P(B,\B,) = Conditional probability of the event B, given that B, has occurred “6 Hence by multiplication rule, we get P(B, and B,) = P(B, () B,) = P(B,) P (B,|B,) Example 1.28. A card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards and then second card is drawn, find the probability that the first card is a spade and then second card is a club if the first card is not replaced. Solution. We have : nest P (first card spade) = P(S)= 55 = Afier the event of drawing a spade the deck has 51 cards 13 of which are clubs (C) 13 Therefore, PICS) = 7 Hence, P (Sand C)= P(S) P(Q'S) pag alae ~ 4°51 204 1 Example 1.29. If (4) = 3 , P(B)= 4, P(AUB) -} determine : (i) P(B\A) (ii) P(A|B’). Solution. Given that: P(A) = 5.PB)= pPcaus)=+ 3, From the addition theorem on the probability, P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)— P(ANB) P(ANB) = PANB) _j @ P(B\ A)= P(A) (i) P(ANB’)= P(A) P(A B) Divide by P(E) ® scanned with OKEN ScannerBasic Prosasusry seta abs vonies Ones 29 0 P(ANB’) _ P(A) _ P(ANB’) PCB’) P(B)) —P(B’) u ws es => PAB) & ar x a 4 Basins) % at Slee ee > eal arian 31a Fig. 1.1. 1 POAIB) = 5 Example 1.30. A dice is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to nal probability that the number 4 has appeared at least once z be 6. What is the cond Solution. Consider the events. A= number 4 appears atleast once B= the sum of the number appearing is 6 Then A= (4, 1) (4, 2) (4,3) (4,4) (4, 5) (4, 6) (6, 4) (5, 4) G, 4) (2,4) (1, 4)} B= {(1,5)2,4),3)(4,2)6, D} PAMB)= {(2,4) (4,23 and P(ANB) _ 2 P(B) 5 Example 1.31, A market survey was conducted in four cities to find out the preference for rand A soap. The responses are shown below: P(AIB) = No No opinion (a) What is the probability that a consumer preferred brand 4, given that he was from Chennai? (6) Given that » consumer preferred brand 4, what is the probability that he was from Mumbai? © scanned with OKEN Scanner, ® scanned with OKEN Scanner ™ : —— Proassuiry so Se Solution. The information from responses during market survey is as follows: : Lo ethi ] Kothata | Chennai | Mumbai | Torat Yes 4s 55 60 so | 210 | No 35 45 35 45 160 ee 5 5 5 20 | Total 85 105 100 100 390 Let X denote the event that a consumer selected at random preferred brand A. Then (a) The probability of a consumer preferred brand A, given that he was from Chennai : 0. P(XNC) 39 3 BT) oe eT PCY na 00s 390 (b)The probability that the consumer belongs to Mumbai, given that he preferred brand A: 50 PIMNX) 309 _ 5 PX) = Pex) = 390 Example 1.32. Data on the readership of a certain magazine show that the proportion 0 male readers under 35 is 0.40 and over 35 is 0.20. If the proportion of readers under is 0.70, fini the proportion of subscribers that are ‘females over 35 years’. Also calculate the probability tha a randomly selected male subscriber is under 35 years of age. Solution. Let us define the following events: A : Reader of the magazine is a male. B : Reader of the magazine is over 35 years of age. Then in usual notations, we are given : (0) The proporation of subscribers that are females over 35 years is : P(A ()B)= 0.20, P (ANB) = 0.40 and P(B)= 0.70 = P(B)=030 PAM B) = P(B)~ P(ANB) = 0,300.20 =0.10 (i) The probability that a randomly selected male subscriber is under 35 years is : PANB) 040_2 PIA) ~ pay = 06073 [+ P(A) = P(ANB) + (ANB) = 0.20 + 0.40 = 0.601 Example 1.33.11 the probability that a communication system will have high fidelity is 08! and the probability that it will have high fidelity and selectivity is 0.18, what is the probabilifY that 2 system with high fidelity will also have selectivity? : oeBasic PROBABILITY. Solution. Let be the event that represent a communication system will have high fidelity P(A)= 081 Let (4 un B) be the event that represents high fidelity and selectivity. P(AMB) = 0.18 so high selectivity (by using conditional The probability that a system will have high fidelity w probability) is P(ANB) 0.18 _ 2 PBIA)= “Pay = O81 9 Example 1.34. A couple has two children. Find the probability that both children are boys, if it is known that at least one of the children is a boy. Solution. Let B, and G, stands for * child be a boy and girl respectively. Then sample space can ‘be expressed as S= {B, By, B, Gy G, By G, Gy} Consider the following events A= both the children are boys B = at least one of the children is a boy Then A= (B, B,} B = {B, Gy, G, By, By By} So AB = {B, By} as pans) 4.1 Required PB) = ~pay = 3 3 a Example ee ‘The probability that a student selected at random from a class will pass in a Mathematics is = 4 snd the probability that he/she passes in Mathematics and Computer Science is wi, What is the probability that he/she will pass in computer science, if itis known that he has passed in mathematics? Solution. Probability (Pass in Mathematics) = 5 =P) Probability (Passes in Mathematics and Computer Science) Le = = PMne) P(C:) =? ® scanned with OKEN Scanner