Unit - VI Probability Theory - 1 [6.1] Introduction in our normal conversations we make statements like ‘I am likely to be out of station’, [have a good chance of being selected to the job’ etc. In such statements we are not sure of the outcome but we intend to estimate the chances of our statments being true. Probablity gives an insight for such things in a mathematical way. [6.2] Definitions Exhaustive event : An event consisting of all the various possibilities is called an exhaustive event: Mutually exclusive events : Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of one event prevent the simultaneous happening of the others. Examples 1. In tossing a coin, getting head and tail are mutually exclusive inview of the fact that if head is the turn out, getting tail is not possible. 2. In throwing a cubical ‘die’, getting any of the number 1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6 are mutually exclusive as the turn out of any number rules out the possibility of the turn out of other numbers. Independentevents: Two or more eventsare said tobe independent ifthe happening or nonhappening of one event does not prevent the happening or non happening of the others. Examples 1. When two coins are tossed the event of getting head is an independent event as both the coins can turn out heads. 2. Whenacardisdrawn at random froma pack of 52.cards and if the cardis replaced, the result of the second draw is independent of the first. But if the card is not replaced then the result of the second depends on the result of the first draw. Mathematical (priori) definition of probability : If the outcome of a trial consists exhaustive, mutually exclusive, equally possible cases, of which m ofE, usually denoted by P(E) orsimply pis defined to be equal to. mn, number of favourable cases aay PCE) = p= “number of possible cases“ 1 dbability can atmost beequal to 1, because the number of favourabl nber of possible cases can almost eincide with each other, Since cases are favourable to the event, it follows that (=m) » the event, This set of unfavourable events is denoted by Eo] Therefore probability of the non happening of the event usually’cenot given by mt oe (Ee MB ~Zat-p ot poe Equivalently P(E)+P(E) = 1 P is also referred to as the probability of success and q as the probabil Their sum is always equal to 1 bE : W P(E) = 1, E iscalledasureevent & if P(E) = 0, E iscalledanimpas Examples. 1. The probability of getting a ‘head in tossing of cain ‘The possible outcomes are head and tail Number of possible (exhaustive) cases (71 Number of favourable cases (m) = Probability of getting head (p) = " 2 The probability of getting (a) king (b) king ar oueen, wy froma pack of 52 cards, : oe Number of possible (exhaustive) cases (1) (a) Number of favourable cases (m) = 4 Probability of getting aking (p) card is drawn % Probability of getting aking or queen py = Eppes orili Ilustration 6.21] Empirical (Statistical) definition of probability An Illus! is das The mathematical definition of probability fails when the number of ou Suppose acard Inifinite (not exhaustive) and the outcomes are not equally likely. of geting» King of the theorem, ‘The empirical definition is as follows. i conditions, the limiting value ofthe ratio of the nu t Ehap tothe total numberof tals asthe numberof tals inereases indefinitely is 6.32] Product! probability of the happening of the event £. fa compo In brief we can say that, if m is the number of times in which an event E occurs provabiliegieg series of trials then the probability of happening of E is defined by, ne probed p=P(E)=lim ™ Thatis, If A and B 6.3] Probability theorems (531) a The probability of the happening of one or the other mutually exclusive ev is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the two events. Thats, if A,B are two mutually exclusive events then, P(A orB) = P(A) + P(B) Proof : Let the total number of exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally p ‘cases in the trials be n. Out of these let m, cases be favourable to the event A im, cases be favourable to B, fion theorem of probability (ii) Hence number fens vouable ether Aor B im o +m, mmm my P(A or B) = given by Bee Since my cases are favourable to B, PB) Substituting these in the RHS of (1), P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B) This proves the addition theorem of probability «Note : The theorem is also true for Ay Ay Ay, and we have, Play oF Ay OF Ay... 07.) = PAL) + PAL) 4 Finite number of mutually exclusive+ theorem of probability. «jor finite number of independent events An Illustration sat there isa function for which two gt -sts G, and Gy are: four possibilities are that (i) bot! G and G, are pr absent (ii) G, is absent and G, is present (iv) both ~ equally likely. The only case fabourable is the presence of bot he corresponding probability is 1/4 which is LHS of the theorem. coking independently the probability of G, being present is 1/2be cexct or G, absent are the only two possibalities, Similarly the prob beng presents also 1/2 and the product of these two probabilities as in| Georem is 1/2 - 1/2 = 1/4 whichis same as LHS. WORKED _PROBI MS Aor contains 3 white, 5 Dlack and 6 red balls, Ifa ball is drawn at rando probity that itis either red or white ? >> Total number of balls inthe box = 14 Pigettngaredbal = ; P getting white ball) = 3 a) 3 ee ai 14 (By adn theorem sinc the two events ae exlusioe) Th red probability is 9/14 (geting red or white) 2. Anum contane 2 hte and 2 ack al : 2 ils and a second urn contains 2 tall one al is dren ” Sal ome al dren at random from each ur hat i the probabl >> Total number of balls in the first um = 2W + 2B = 4 since either of these addition theorem is 1/6 - balls. A balls tran that itis white. Since a ball is Case) Suppose~ Ne 282 PeoeABILITY (0) Probability of getting both white 1 P( Wand W) is 4 x 3 = } by applying product theorem. (ii) Probability of getting both black Sereno P(BandB) is 2x 5 = 3 1 (ii) P(B from B, and W from B, 3 aerate a oF PCW from B, and B from B,) = 8 x 3 = 3 Either of these two cases are favourable to the event. “ sp - =u 13 Thus the required probability by addition theoremis § + 5, = 5. Tio canis are drat in succession from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probabil first is king and-the second is queen ifthe first card is (a) replaced (b) not sa >> (@) Probability of geting king = 4 = 4 Probability of getting queen = = 2 Thus Pigtingkingand gen) =F «Cer ncn (©) In the second case as before, the probability of getting king is 1/13, If the card is not replaced then there will be 52-1 = 51 cards in the pack probability of geting queen is 4/51. ‘ 1 Ba Pieris Mie sad gies 1 x f= Some aca S bulls are drawn at random from a bag of s on die ae ano tt >> Total number of balls = 6W + 48 = 10 balls, ‘The numberof possible ways of selecting 5 balls cut of 10 ig aa 3 3W from 6W can beselected in °C, ways & 2B from 4B can be selected in 4 fh ER 8, «*C, we284 PROBABLITY THEORY. PROBABILITY 285 8. The probability that a person A solves the problem is 1/3, that of Bis 1/2 and that © Cis 3/5. f the probelm is simultaneously assigned to al of them what is the probabil ‘hat the problem is solved ? 10, From 6 positive and 8 negative numbers, 4 numbers are chosen at random (without replacement) and multiplied. What is he probability that the product isa postive number. s> To get the product of 4 numbers positive we have the following 3 possibilities where P denotes a positive number and N denotes a negative number. AP and ON ; 2P and 2N ; OP and 4N se associate probability is givenby od >> Itshould be noted that even if any one of them solves the problem, itis pres that the problem is solved. Hence we shall consider the probabilities for the following cases A not solving the problem = 1-1 = 2 B notsolving the problem = 1 - 1 = 2 zee ‘Thus the required probability is 0.5045 : ‘Thus the required probability oe ee C not solving roblem = 1 — ving the problem =1 3 =? 11, A box contains tags marked 7,2, Tao fags are chosen a random Find the probity * “that numbers an the tags ‘will be consecutive integers if () tags are chosen with replacement (i) tags are chosen without replacement. >> (i) No.of tags = 1 and selection of 2 tags can have the pairs of numbers (2), 1, 3), 4), 1) (2,1), (2, 3), 2,4) ny the probability that the problem is not solved at all is 2 x 3 Equlenty wena tat g = 2 Dot p + q-= 1 where p isthe proba probability of not solving the preblns = m(n-1) ways ae bility of solving the problem and q ig (1, 1) (1, 2), Ct, 3), (my a=1)) mtn(n-1) = The favourable cases are, 3 "5 NARGEES (2, 1), (3, 2), (4 3), ~ ‘The required probability is p ‘On replacement, the total number of ways a a 3 — (-1n)| hs ng ee a (ot year) a(S 9. If numbers reseed fo th st of numer 0123 tha thes equa tn et tambo 03,23... 9 find : ne ‘Thus the required probability Sn he Gib 2 tags con be eee URGE esi, aye Th >> The sethas 10 numbers and the nus bers and the number of ways of selecting 2 out of 108 1 The various possible pairs of numbers giving 10as this sum are (19) § (2,8) 5 (3,7); (4,6), Beng «pombe, 1,2), 2,8), ) = (nd) Thus the required probability is 4 4 Thus the required probability Gs UF. = =e3 sahil mntains 3 whiteand A bag contains 10 white and 3 red bas while another bag contains 3 2 halls are drawn at random from the first bag and put inthe second bag. Then drawn at random from the second bag. What is the probability that it is a white >> BB, : 10W+3R = 13 balls By: 3W+5R =8 balls When two balls are drawn at random from the first bag, the number of possible: is 13. The outcomes may be 2 (W & W), (R&R), (WER) 10, 3 PW) = agi PRR) = 7g" 2 PCLWand 18) Bt2W = SW+5R=10 balls; P(W) = 5/0 B,+2R =3W+7R=10 balls ; P(W)=3/0 By+(1W+1R) =4W+6R=10 balls; PCW) = 4/10 Probability in each of these Bee 5 5G fig lu -acia S te cases are respectively 3.0 4 10 13. * 10 Since either ofthese 3 cases are favourable to the event the required prob sum ofall these. a ‘Thus the probability is given by [ig,-5+3¢, 3430-4] = 0.458 1B. Three groups of chiren contain respecticely 3 girs 2 girls iy 3 girls and 1 boy, 2 girls and 2 and 3 boys. One child is selected at random jrom each group. Fi selecting 1 girl and 2 boys rom ec goin and 2 boys (B) can be in the iated probabilities is also woe fs Probabilities Optra c. 9/4.2/4.3/4 [= opten-a [a | > [options [8 ‘The required proBaiiy is the sum ofall hee proktsingns” Thus we have, 9/32+3/32+1/32 BA 14 A bag contains 40 tickets mumbered 1, 2, 3, ---40, of which four are drawn at randam and arranged in the ascending order. (t, < ly < ty < ty) Find the probability of t being 25. >> 4 tickets out of 40 can be selected i > 4 tickets out o in 40 ways. It, = 25 then and fy mustbe from 1to24whichcan beselectedin 24-, ways ‘Also , must be from the remaining 15 tickets numbered 26 to 40 and there are 15 ways of selecting ty Hence the number of ways favourable to the eventis 24. x 15 = 4140 probability of t, being 25 = ‘Thus the probability of t, being 25 is 0.0453 Tao dice are thrown. Find the proability of (a) getting an odd number on the one and a ‘multiple of 3 om the other (b) one of the dice showed 3 and sion om thet dice is 9(@) sumon the too dice is 9(d) Sumon the twodiceis 13. >> Here we need to list out all the various possible outcomes (6° = 36) of the simultaneous throwing of two dice. They are as follows. ee Git) Gel) Gey ay 15, G.1) (2,1) (1.2) (2,2)) (@egye Gnanie (see) meee (1,3) (2,3) (3,8) (4,3) 3) 4) 24) Ga) 4) GA (5) 2/5) aera 6 1.6) 2,6) G6) Total number of outcomes= 96 (@) ‘The favourable out ‘multiple of3 on the other‘ @ (1.3) (ia wt) 3,1), (6, Total number of favo ‘Thus the required p236 Thus the required probability is 4/36 4) Sum on the two dice equ san Thus the required probabili impos ible outcome. [64] Probability associated with set theory [641] Recapitulation of Set Theory A set isa collection of objects and the obj set Sets are usually denoted by A, B,C Ifan element x belongs to A we write x If Bisa set such that every element of B al A. This is equivalent to A written as Every set is a sub set of itself Ac Band BCA implies A ACB and A+ B wesay that Aisa All sets under consideration are assumed to be sub sets of some fixed sath universal set usually denoted by U A set which contains n by ¢-Forany set A, @ A universal set U is represented geometric sets of U are represented by circles i representation is called a Venn diagram, Set Operations The set of all elements which belong, to either sets A and B denoted by AU B, The set of all elements which belong to bo sets Aand B denoted by A> 8. Theseto of A and B denoted by AB, The set of elements of U which does not denoted by A” ments is called a mull set or empty set jects are called members or © A, otherwise we write x € Al Iso belongs t writing 42 B read asA =B proper sub set of B. ally by a set of points insidea inside the rectangle. Such a) 4 or B or both is called the oth A and B is called the is belong to A is called the Awe say that Bisa A’ = U-A Notations A, A® are also used for the complement of A. Two sets A and Bare said tobe disjoint if Ao B= @ i ‘The set of all subsets of A is called the power set of A. It may be noted that @ < A, ACA. ‘Venn diagrams for set operations TAUBT 1408) aD) (] AY) eee (4-8) TAT one (Shaded portions in each diagram indicate the set operation) ‘Some important laws on set operations 1. AUB = BUA ; ANB = BOA [Commutatice ews] 2 AU(BUC) = (AUB)UC; Antanc)=(A.n 8) 9 € 3. AU(BNC) = (AUB)O(AUe) AN(BUC) = (AD B)U(ANC) sain 4. (AUB) A08 5 : GEA cata290 E, and E, aretwo events then E, UE, istheevent E, or E, orboth. E,n; istheevent E, and also E, si) Ey’ is the event that occurs if E, does not occur. (iv) E,-E, istheevent E, butnot E, Example-1_Inthrowing cubical ‘die’ a number appears at the top. The! consist of six possible numbers. $=|12345,6 Suppose E, is the event of getting an odd number at the top and E, ist getting an even number then 2, 4, 6). E, 1 1 and E, are sub sets of 8: Example -2. Suppose «coin is tossed twice and Fis the event of getting head, then we have S=\HH, HT, TH, TT], E=(HH, HT, TH} =) Axioms of Probability (Axiomatic definition of probability) 1 Sisthesample space and Fs these of all events then to each event A in 8 unigue real numer P = P(A) Known asthe ero following axioms are satisfied. hin ‘the prevent a These are known as the axioms of probability. L P(S)=1 2. Forevery event AinE 0< P(A) <1 2A, P(A\U A, Ay, are mutually exclusive e vents of E then VARY = PCAL*PCA,) 4 +P(A,) prORABiLiTY Addition rule If A and B areany two events of § which are not mutually exclusive then P(A U B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A 9B) Proof : We prove the result using the following Venn diagram, 5 eee From the figure A=(A0B)U (AaB) B=(ANB)U(ANB) a os P(A) = P(A B)+P(A 0 B), sinceA 9 B and Am B are disjoint. P(B) = P(A B)+P(A 0 B), since Am B and Ao B aredisjoint. Here we have used the third axiom of probability that P(A,UA,) = P(A,)+P(Ay) if A and A, are mutually exclusive. P(AMB)+P(A 0 B)+P(A 9 B)IFP(A NB) P(AUB)]+P(ANB) (A) +P(B)-P(A 0B) Now P(A)+P(B Thatis P(A)+P(B Thus P(A U B) Remarks 1. If A and B are mutually exclusive then P(A > B) = 0 P(A UB) = P(A)+P(B) This is same as the addition theorem proved earlier (631) 2 Since P(A B)20, P(A UB) S P(A)+P(B) 645] Conditional probability In many situations the probabilities of two or more events In otherwords, the happening of one event depends on“Thatis to say that, P(B/A) isthe probability of B given A: Probability of the occurence of both B and AU P(B/A) = Deobability of the occurence of the given event A (Ao B) Thatis POB/A) = 5 Cay = P(AoB) Aso P(A/B) =~ SR 646] Multiplication rule We have from (1), P(A OB) = P(A)-P(B/A) where P(A) > 0, Thisis called the multiplication rule of probability, Remark: If A and B are two independent events then P(B/A) = P(B) Hence (3) becomes P(A NB) = P(A)-P(B) ‘Thatis, P(A OB) = P(A)-P(B) © A and B are independent, ‘This is same as a product theorem proved earlier (6.32) Illustrative Example Let A be the event of getting an odd number. A=(1,3,5] Hence Inthe next trial let B be the event of getting a number less than 4. Hence, B= |1, 2,3 Now P(3/A) isthe probability of getting a number less than 4 Thatis, P(B/A) = PLA BY P(A) Here, Aq B= (1,3) and P(A rn py 2 Hence, P(B/A) = 13 = 2294 eineorns Ay, Ayp <= Ay ofthe sampespace 7 [Note:The mutually ex , f § and the event A is shaded in the following igure 4 - Since Ac B, ANB [In this context Baye's theorem can also be stated as follows. ‘Thatis B= (AB) UA Suppose Ayy Ayy Ay frm partition ofthe sample space S & A is any P(A) PCA/A,) PAYA) = = | al WORKED PROBLEMS 16, Prove the following @ — P(e)=0 Gi) P(A) = 1-P(A) where A isthe compliment of A. >> @ Wehave AU =A forany set A. => P(AU4)= P(A) Thatis, _P(A)+P(@) = P(A) by the probability axiom (3) or P(®) = P(A)-P(A) = 0 Thus PCO)= 0 That is, P(A 9B): Gi) Theevents A, A aredisjoint and their union isthe sample: ‘Thus A and B ar Thats, = AU A=S i = PAYA) = P(S) of P(A)+P(A) #1 Hence we have used probability axioms (3) and (1), Thus P(A) = 1-P(A)‘We have from the figure, B = (AnB)UCAnB) since AB and A 8 aredisjpint we have pcp) = P(A B)+P(A OB) oe P(A B) = P(B)-P(A DB) p(B)-P(A)-P(B) p(By[1-P(A)] = PLB) P(A) > p(Aa By = P(A) PCB) ‘thus A and B are independent. We have from the figure, A=(AnBu(AnB) P(A) = P(AM B)+P(A MB) or (AN B)=P(A)-P(A OB) = P(A)-P(A)-P(B) P(AyI1-P(B) P(A 0B) = P(A) P(B) ‘Thus A and B are independent. Pcs )P(B) Aso independent. >> We shall prove that P[(A UB) 9 Cl= P(A U B)-P(C) Now (AUB) 9 C= (AMC) U (BAC) by distributive! = PUA BOC] =PL(ANC)U(BAC)] = P(A NC)+P(BOC)-P | Cc) Weave used addition ruleinthe RHS, |») PAO G Further we have, PUA UB) 9 C)= P(A C)+P(B my C)-P(A = P(A)-P(C)+P(B)-P(C)—PUA since A, B, C are mutually independent. Thatis, PICA UB) Cl = P(C)[ P(A) P¢B) = PEAY PCC)LP(A)+P(B)-PCA =P(C)-PCAU BY zoe V3+1/4 PUB) = 23 P(A B) = P(A)=P(A By V3-V4 P(ANB)= v2 24. Prove that P(AUBUC) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+P(AMBAC) =P(ANB)-P(BNC)-P(CnA) >> Letus write AUBUC as AU(BUC) and apply the addition rule, ie, P(AUBUC) = P(A)+P(BUC)-P [An(BUC)] ie, P(AUBUC)=P(A)+P(BUC)-P[(AMB)U(AnC)] by using distributive law for the third term in the RHS. Applying the addition rule for the second and third terms in the RHS we have, P(AUBUC) = P(A)+[P(B)+P(C)-P(BOC)] = | P(AMB)+P(ANC)=P[(ANB)n(ANC))), But (ANB)O(ANC) is (AABN) P(AUBUC) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)=P(BAC) =P(ANB)-P(ANC) + P(ANBNC) ‘Thus we have proved that ® P(AUBUC) P(A) +P(B)+P(C)+P(ANBNC) =P(ANB)- PURO) rena) If A and A, ve ee caer Ay and (4, UA, ) respectively, find the probability of A if Ao, PAB) = P(B)-P(A 8) 1, Ay and A, are mutually exclusive 1-P)|-P(An 8) = 1-¢5/8) 2 A, and Ay are independent. “ i > By data P(A,) = 025 and P(A, Uy) = Wehave P(A, UA,) = ae as tswith P(A) = 72, P(AUB) f P(A 0B), P(AMB), P(A UB), P(A B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A MB) (AnB) (De- Morgan's law) P(A OB) P(ANB)=14 Next (De- Morgan's law) (AuB) ie, 1-P(AnB)=P(AUB) ie, 1-(18)= P(AUB P(A UB) 7/8 3A, comiins Ay PAns 2. I A and B areeoonts with BA wp P(ANB)= 1/4 find P ae (A), PCB) and P(A WB A, and A, sare mutually exsive, A, 4 = >> P(A) = 1-P(A) = 1-(2) y 3 Z P(Ay=13 "4 a é P(AUB BY = P(A)+P(B)-P(A By te 3/4 = V3 4P(B)-14Heence(1) becomes, 05 = 025+P(4,)-0 P(A,) = 025 2 If A, and A, are independent P(A\OA ) = P(A) P(Ag) Now we have from (1), 05 = 025 + P(Ay) ~ 025 - P(Ay) or O75P(A,) = 025 P(A) = V3 CA, > A\UA, = A, Hence P(A,UA,) = P(Ay) P(A,) = 05 26. If A and B are two events prove the following results. P(A)-P(AA 1 P(AB) = 2S) where P(A aan chere P(B) #1 and hence deduce that P(A) B) > P(A)+P(B)-1 2 P(AB) = ge - oan 1. PAB) PCB) =(ANB)U(An By (AnB)+P(A 9 By B) = P(A)-P(A m By Alsowehave P(B) = 1-P(p) Using these in (1) we have, From the figure, A 2 2G P(A) = PLAD-P(A 9 1-P(B) where P(B) #1 From the figure, B = (A 9 B. P(B) = P(AN P(AQB) 27. If A, B, C areany three ew P(A BIC) = PC where we have used Alo (AAC)ee 5/8-P(A 0B) That is, 3/4 = 38 3 zr p(AnB)= 14 ext, P(A/B) = gy and PAB) = PB) “oe seocwenave, (AB) = 2 and P(B/A) = pam) aa sms 45 8 15 4 (AB) = 2/5 and P(B/A) = 2/3 iz nel : e : P(A) |. Given that P(A 0 B) = 7/2, P(A MB) = 16 = P(A B) 1. Prove that A and B are neither independent nor mutually exclusive 2. Compute P(A/B)+P(B/A), P(A/B)+P(B/R) and P(A/B)+P(B/A) b> 1. P(A UB) = P(A 9B) by using De- Morgan's law. 1-P(AUB)=P(ANB) or P(AUB)=1-P(A OB) P(AUB)=1-(7/A2) or P(A UB) = 5/12 jLet us consider (A U A) © B and apply the distributive law. (AVA) B= (ANB) U(A0B) P(A) = 3/4, P(B) = V5 and P(A 0 B) = 1720) P(A UB), P(A CB), P(A B), P(A/B), PCB P(A/B), P(B/A), P(A/B) and P(A/B) P(A UB) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A 9 BY = 3/4+1/5-1/20 = 9/10 P(A UB) = 9/10 Wehave P(A 9 B) = P(A)-P(A 9 B) and P(A” B) = P(B)-P(A MB) jie., P(AMB) 20 and P(A 7 B) = 15-170 jenote that AU A= S and SAB =B P(A NB) = 7/0 ; P(A B) = 3/20 ‘urther we also note that A. B and Ao B are disjoint. ia pcan OAS P(AOB Next, P(A/B) = 2 vay - PLA BY . p(B) Md PCH) (AnB)u(AoB) P(a/By = 220 and P(B/A) = 20 P(B) = P(A a B)+P(ANB) is ee = 1647/2 = 9/12 = 3/4 4 P(A/B) = V/4 ; P(B/A) = 1/15 P(B) = 3/4 andhence P(B) = 1/4 By =? AOD) 4 pay PAB imilarly (B UB) AA = (BO A)U (BOA) “ay HSis So A= A and hence wehave P@) P(A) P(A) = P(An B)+P(A0B) P(A) = 1/6+7/12 = 3/4 and hence P(A) = 1/4 We know that 7 OB (e-Morgen’staw) = PUB) =PAnt ) 1 AR pc ay ‘onsider P(A U B) = P(A)+P(B)—P(A 9 B) ie, 1-(90) = P(A ny fs 5/12 = V441/4-P(A 9B) BY or PAB) = 10 vi 1 Hence P(A, + since P(B) = 1- p(B) = 4/5) Also p(B/A) - 10 _2 is 14 ~ 57 Since P(A) =1_p( A) = PAB) = 1/8 ; PCRss nd P(A)-P(B) wit and P(A)+P(B) = W2 p(B) and P(A UB) # (AY B are neither independent nor mutual p(AcoB) , PBOA) PC.) 16 2 Basi eees P(A) =1-P(A) = 12 PCa) > 1 Since PCA) ( we 5/6 i ile in second in a schoo! 25% ofthe students failed in frst language, 15% ofthe students fi etal “he of the students failed in both. Ifa student is selected at random find the probablty that He failed in first language if he had failed in the second language. (i) He failed in second language if he had failed in the first language. iti) He filed in either of the tao languages. hus P(A/B)+P(B/A) = 14/9 = zy -P(AnB) , PAB) P(B) (A) _V6 1% 4 34 * 3/479 49 31. IFA, Bare two (@ P(A/B) @) P(B/A) @) P(A/B) (@) PCB/AY so (Ami) = RUAGBY Ta P(B) “1374 Pipa) = P(BOA)_ 4 _a PAY 17272 P(A/B) - PCAnB) PB) ee mica! ees insulated tok nthe Me B) =1- PRY = 1 — (gy eo ‘and 5% are likely to be defective in the Wehave DeMorganslaw: (AGB) - herp eee hee ae P(ANB) = P(AUB) = =p PH) and P(1) resp y ) (AUB) = P(AUB), tank being defective.sit ctorytherearefour machines A,B,C, D manufacturing respectively 20%, 18%, e a eae total ie ‘Out of these 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% are defective. Ifa bolt 9 P(1)= rte 0.09, PC g 2 PL 100 ¢ es sctively stantial Grawon at random was found defective what is the probability that it was man ufactured ve ea to and PCO) = Hand ina by AorD? We nee ad inslated tank eee cb mania 2 haan ans at eo Unk =(aaee Hence we have . De Morgan's law of sets P(A) = 02, P(B) = 045, P(C) = 025, P(D) =04 Wehaveb) " Ul) = 1-P(HUT) (A -|p(H)+ PC) PHOT) Let X be the event of selection of a defective bolt. Then © pial) = 1-[P(H)+P()-PCH) » POD. (XA) = 008, P(X/B) = 004, P(X/C) = 0.03, P(X/D since H and are independent P(H01) = P(H) - PCL) Weneed to compute P (AUD/X) p(HaT) = 1~ {0.09 + 0.05 ~( 0.09) ( 0.05) Isince A and D are mutually exclusive we have, Attter? PE Fi) - P(7) since H, T are independent. P(AUD/X) = P(A/X) +P (DX) 7 Pi 1-P(H)|[1-P(1)] |We have by Baye’s theorem, Z : P(A): P(X/A P(A) =5 AYP (XA) +P (B) PX/B)+ P(E): P(X/C)+P(D)-P(X/D) = 0.2) (0.05. sebespoeng mimesis POO * aay Cie ee eel ie item isseleted a ndom and is found defect pied vac fen PCA) = ggig = 0975 ee >> Let A,B,C stand forthe events of selection of an item from mi (04) (04 aco P(D/xy = PUDIPCRAD) _ (OAYOMY _ 554 -.@) pty eHin 0& pty = Bt pe 0.0315 0.0315 Y= 700 5° PCE) ingen 100 je shall use (2) and (3) in (1). 2 ‘Suppose Dis the event of selection a defective item then. us, P(AUD/X) = 0.3175+0.254 = 0.5715 P(D/A) = 2, (3 x tae ae A a (D/A) = 309 = 002, P(D/B) = ah = 0.08, PDAS 16. An office has 4 secretaries handling respectively 20%, 60%, 15% and 5% of the files of To find the probabil a selected iter ail government repos: Tne po baeiyiet eas ats TSERE m ty that a selected item is produced from the 005,01, 0.1 and 0.05. Find the probability that the misfiled report can be | we need to find P (C/D), We have by Baye's theorem, the first secretary > Let Ay, Ay Ay, Ay be thed secretaries of the office, Se 5 Giese » 15%, 5% of the files. Hence we have € P(A) P(D/A)+P(B).P(D/B)=P(G) Bl P(A,)= 20100= 0.2, P(A,)= 06, P(Ay)= 0. = (0.1) (0.04) E be the event of misfiling a report by the sec (06) (002)+(03)¢008)+(01) (004) PCE/A,) = 0.05, P(E/Ay) = 01, P(E/A ‘Thus P(C/D) = 0.16 fe need to find P(A\/E) and ve by E 's the P(C/D) =P(A,)PCE/A,)_ 4) +P (A,) P(E/A,) +P (Ag) CEZAR (02) (005) aaa (005) + (0.6) (0.1) + (0.15) (0.1) + (0.05 ) ( 0.05) P(A)P(D/A) _ (05)(0.03) P(D) 0.037 0.4054 P(A/D) = 0.4054 is P(A/D ‘A tag comains Hr cons, one of which fs tv hended and the ofher two are normal and jain coin ts chosen at random from the bag and tossed four times in succession. If head turns up each time, what is the probability that this i the two headed coin. 9 will diagnose a disease correctly is COT Let C, be the two headed coin and Cy, C, be the normal coins, 40% and the chance of death by worongi 1 ance that his disease ts Caras iy tbe the event of getting 4 heads in succession and we have to find P(C,/E) Thus P(A/E) = 04183 Let A be the event of correct diagnosis and B be the event of Ee low P(E) = P(C,)P(E/C,)+P(C,)P(E/C,) + P(C,) P(E/Cy) by the dactor ton (A) = 06 and P(B) = 04 (€Jayzo- je have P(C,) = P(C,) = P(C,) = 1/3 Let E be the event that the patient dies 3 P(E/C,) = 1 since C, isa two headed coin. ai exh Re P(e) am P(E/C,) = P(E/3) = 12-12-1/2.172 = 1/16 Wehavetofind P(A/E) and by Baye's theorem, A ‘ince the probability of getting a head in a normal coin is 1/2 PALE P(A)PCE/A) pce) = 2. 1d P(E) = Hence P(E) = 4-143 - 9 -3 P(A)-P(E/A)+P(B)-P(E/B) (06) (04) (06) (04) +(04) (07) = 04615, = 04615 E) 13841 Thus P(A/E 38. Tive machines A, B, C produces 5 z rg Percotage ae © Produces 50%, 30%, and 20% of the ites 1. Three major parties A, B, C are contending for power in the el ofa state and the ren of fectie outputs are 3, 4,5. fan item is selected il chance of their winning the election is in the ratio 1 : 3: 5, The parties A, B, C tits defective? What is the prabablity that i som respectively have probabilities of banning the online lary 273, 1/3, 3/5. What isthe Probability tha there wil bea bacon he online lottery in the state ? What isthe probability ‘hat the ban is from the party ©? > P(A) = 1/9, P(B) =39= 173, P(C) =59 * E be the event of banning the online lottery. P(E/A) = 2/3, P(E/B) =1/3, P(E/C) = 3/5 pe P(E) P(A)P(E/A)+P(B)P(E/B)+P(C)P(E/C) P(E) = 1124 dee eet 5 3S anol tee 7 Machine A_proctuce 50 defective Let 2 does of the items ofthe factory and Ou ‘vent of selecting a defective item. 05 and P(D/A) = 0.03 P(B) =o, Pcay 3 and P(D/B) = 004 P(C) = 02 and (D/C) = aps Now P(D) = P(A) pcp, : AyP( A)*P(B)P(D/B) +P(C) P(D/E (D) = (05)(003)4¢4 Thus the probability of selecting a Neat we shal find the That stofind P eee 9)(004) +(0.2) (0.05) = 0.037 defective item is. 0,037 1us the probabi Probability that the it (70) and when y Saami A310 = Ge) and we have by Baye's theorem, P(E.) PCE/E, +P (Eq) PCF/Eg) +P (Ey) P(F/E,) + P (By )P CFE.) Next we shall find ie 5c) PCE/C) _ 3/9:3/5 - 9 p(c) a 17s. 10, 10 aie p(C/E) P(E) wy” 14 “ise Bes) “ yy of ban from C is 9/14 ia ‘hus the probabil " jext we have to find P (E,/E) and by Baye’s theorem, yaar bal pes no writing colours Ete aid so orves a pens of each colour Ina particule sap ito fond i 7( 8) CE) ae Dx i aud 2 red pens, packet 2 contained 2 blue and P(E /F) « an Fal pens Oh The demand of a customer fOr a 4 POP) 26/100 = 26 rer os taken out. Teo found blue Fit hus PCEy/F) = 0.03846 » 0.08 be the event of selecting packets 1, 2, 3 respects 3. In aclass 70% are boys and 30% are girls 5% of boys, 3% ofthe girls are irregular to the oes Mea, What is the probability ofa student selected at random i irregular to the classes P(E) = V3, P(E,) = 17, P(Es) = 73 ‘and what is the probability that the irregular student is a girl ? nes? ae Lot B be the event of selecting a blue pen. ‘robability of selecting a boy = P(B) = 70/100 = 0.7 £ Probability of selecting a blue pen from packet 1 is P(B/E,) obebllty of selecting a gt = aig caer sayest ea re Let T be the event of selecting an irregular student P(1/B) = 5/100 = 0.05, P(1/G) = 3/100 = 0.03 (B)P(1/B) +P (G)P(WG) 07) (0.05) + (03) (0.03) = 0.044 P(B/E,) = 3/5. Similarly P( B/E,) = 2/5, P (B/E, = Wehave tofind P (E\/B) and by Baye's theo P(E, )P(B/Ey) P(E, )P(B/E, )+ P(E, )P (B/E,) + PC Eg) > V3-3/5 24 V3-3/54+1/3-V5+1/3-3/8 55 Thus P(E\/B) = 24/55 ence P (1) Pa 1us the probal P(EVB) 42. Ballpen els ae packed in po are equal bat rel aren pouch containing 2 fs in ech - sh fist te pou), 10 Eh pe Topo ee th rs crt Wha se cane tates the ee he probability that i was from pou ‘aes e ‘y Fy be the event of selecting pouches at P(E) = 1/4 =P. (E,) = VA= PCE) = PCE,) = PCE, ‘et F be the event of selecting a refi failing to write PCF/E,) = 5/25, PC F/I cstoaa a PCE) = 1 Hence the prob 2) = 10/25, PCF/E,) = Se probablity ofthe event F is given byeee aa .d by Baye’s theorem, 05 x 04 0.175 P(E)+P(E) = P(E) is the probability that the problem is not solved. P(E) = P(A)-P(B)-P(C) = 1/2-2/3-3/4 = 1/4 lence P(E) =1-(1/4) 4 P(E) = 3/4 femark : We have earlier solved the same type ofproblem { Ref. Problem - 8] p(B) P(E/B) _ P( B/E) P(E) = 0.2857 Thus P(B/E) = 02857 Miscellaneous Problems 1 independent events are J. Par Py pening ofatlenst one of the events. [7. A shooter can hit a target in 3 out of shots and another shooter oan hit the target in 2 out F. bethe n independent events and we have’ (of 3 shots. Find the probability thatthe target is being hit (a) when both of them try ; (©) by only one shooter. P( Ey) = PCE,) =P, — 2 > bee ;> Let 5, and S, be the events that the shooters 1 and 2 hit the target. P(E,) = (1-p,), P(E) = 1-P), + PCE, = b 4 Ba 1 i P(S,) = 3/4 and P(S)) = 23 3) $2 Probability of the happening of atleast one of the events P(E) ) PLS, U Sy) = P(S,)+P(S,)-P(S, 0 Sy). jut S,, S, are independent. P(S, U Sy) = P(S,)+P(S,)=P(S;)-P(S,) Sig (Probability of the non happening of any of the 1-P (E, UE, UE,) P(E, er 1 P(E,)-P(E,)--- P(E,) Thus P(E 1- [(1-p,)(1-p,)-+(1-p,)} aye sieg (s,n8,\ 0 (8) My 46. The probability that 3 students A, B, C solve a problem : respectively. Ifthe problem is simultaneously assigned to all of probability problem is sotoed ? 7 >> In general if E be the event of solvin, 3 solving the problem, wehaveby data, ne Problem and 4 (8,93,) UB, AS) PLCS, 03) UB, 1 )1= PCS, 05) +P, 9 5,)1 = P(S,)-P(S,)+P(S,)-P(S,) P(A) =12,P (A) = 122, P(B) = 1/3, P(C) = 1/4 and Renee Beier ie : A) P(B) = 2/3, P(G) = 3/4 wus the required probability is 5/12 lethod - 1 a ir FY id adi aes } The probability that a team wins a match is ae 1P(C)+P(A)P (By BCE lowrnament, what the probity Hat the ( a P (a ‘win all tte matches ~ rosie } (9 aa (6) win atmost one mateh utgtyes 11 3 Let W be the event of u Dtn+a*¢ = one Thus P(E) = Probat Of the problem being solved is 3/4 PCW) = PCW,314 a Three students A, B, C write an entrance examination. Their chances of passing are 1/2, 1/3 and 1/4 respectively. Find the probability that (a) atleast one of them passes @) all of them passes (c) atleast two of them passes. ‘Let E be the event of passing the examination by a student. P(A /2 , P(B) = 13, P(C) = 1/4 P(A) = 12, P(B) = 28 , P(E) = 3/4 Probability of atleast one of them passing. ~ (Probability of none of them passing ) = 1-P(A)-P(B)-P(C) —(1/2-2/3-3/4) = 1=(1/4) = 3/4 Probability of all of them passing pv (A)-P(B)-P(C) /2-1/3-1/4 = 1728 3 Probability of atleast two of them passing (A)P(B)P(C)+P(B)P(C)P(A)+P(C)P(A)P(B) +P(A)-P(B)-P(C) winning all the matches P(W,) = 27/125 atleast one match Probability of winning 1 - Probability of losing all the matches. P(W,)-P(W)- PCW) - (8/5) =N7/25 ) Probability of winning atmost one match. ,)+P(W,) PW) PC Wa) W)) PCW) PCW) +PCWGY ; 36 at 5% 5 Bs 5 (@) Probability losing all the matches = a5 P(W,) PCW) POW 3/24 +1/24+2/24+ 1/24 49. The odds that a book wil D- The oe ~ reviewed faoourably by 3 independent oF Find the probability that majority of the reviews 3 betheevents of favourable review by the three EXCERCISES Forany twoevents A and B, show that P(A 0 B) S P(A) < P(AW B) < P(A) +P(B) If A and_B are any two events with Bc A show that P(A B) = P(A)-P(B) and hence deduce that P(B) < P(A) If P(A) = P(B) = P(A 9 B) show the following result. P(A B)+P(A mB) =0 If A and B areevents with P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 2/3 and PCAN B) = V/A, find PCA UB), P(B/A), P(A/B) and P(A/B) I P(AUB > Let Ey E E 1) = 5/7, P(E) = 4 P(Es) =37 7, P(E) = 37, P(E) = 477 Majority of the rev be favourable and WE dows his oe aaa a PCE) = PCE, ) P( P(Es)+P(E,) P(E) P(E) +PCEs)PCE,) P(E) + PC EyePROBABILITY 316 and an article picked from this 2 i ose articles are piled up defective. All these articles are p' a re found defective. What is the probability 4 and 40% of the total is manufactured by m out of which 5%, 4%, 2% are defective, drawn at random is defective ? What is the proba 8, Ina bolt factory 2: A, B, C respectivel: probability that a bolt itis from A? 9. Boxes B,, B,, B, contain white (W), black (B) and red (R) b : fe oes. follows: B, : 2W, 1B, 2R, B,: 3 W, 2B, 4R, B,: 4 Ww, 3B, 2g A ‘die’ is rolled and B, is selected if the number is 1 or 2, B, ifthem in (7% or4, B, if the number is 5 or 6. Ifa ball ig drawn from the box thus sele >, the probability that the ball is from the box B, being,a black ball. ¥ D ‘10. 5 men out of 100 and 25 women out of 100 wear spectacles. If a person We spectacles is chosen at random, what is the probability of his being assuming that men and women are in equal proportion. 1. The chances that 4 students A, B, C, D solve a problen 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/4 respectively. If all of them try to solve the problem} the probability that the problem is solved ? a 12. A, B, C are three horses in a derby race. The prol of A wi that of B and B winning is twice that of C. What are the . There are 4 coins of which one is a false coin with head on both sides. chosen at random and tossed 4 times. If head occurs all the 4 times probability that the false coin has been chosen ? There are 10 students of which 3 are graduates. If a committee of five to be formed what is the probabili atleast 2 graduates, Probability that there are (a) only 2 probability that an error is A is 0.2 and that of B ANSWERS, 5. 7 WU 9. 5/17 1. 13/16 4/7, 2/7, 1/7 ; 3/7 3. 16/19 5/12, 1/12 15.