CHAPTER 3

R A N D O M VA R I A B L E S A N D P RO B A B I L I T Y
D I S T RI B U T I O N S
DEFINITION OF TERMS:

• Experiment/trial – any activity which can be done repeatedly under

similar conditions
• Sample space - the set of all possible outcomes in an experiment
• Event - subset of a sample space
• Outcome – elements in a sample space
• Probability – ratio of the number of favourable outcomes to the
number of possible outcomes
• Random variable - result of chance event that you can measure or
count. It is denoted by CAPITAL LETTERS
Q U E S T I O N S T O P O N D E R:

• In
how many ways do you think a coin can fall?
Explain your answer.

• Inhow many ways can a die fall? Explain your

answer.
Q U E S T I O N S T O P O N D E R:

• Now, if
you are to toss a coin and roll a die, how
many possible outcomes do you have? Explain your
answer
I L L U S T R AT I O N :
I L L U S T R AT I O N :

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
1ST TOSS & ROLL HEAD 1
2ND TOSS & ROLL HEAD 2
3RD TOSS & ROLL HEAD 3
4TH TOSS & ROLL HEAD 4
5TH TOSS & ROLL HEAD 5
6TH TOSS & ROLL HEAD 6
I L L U S T R AT I O N :

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
1ST TOSS & ROLL TAIL 1
2ND TOSS & ROLL TAIL 2
3RD TOSS & ROLL TAIL 3
4TH TOSS & ROLL TAIL 4
5TH TOSS & ROLL TAIL 5
6TH TOSS & ROLL TAIL 6
E XA MP L E #1
Suppose two coins are tossed and we are interested to determine the
number of tails that will come out. Let us use “T” to represent the number
of tails that will come out, and “H” as the number of heads that will come
out. Determine the values of the random variable “T”.
STEPS SOLUTION
STEP 1: List the sample space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
STEP 2: Count the number of tails in Outcome:
each outcome and assign this number HH =
to the outcome HT =
TH =
TT =
STEP 3: Conclusion The values of the random variable T
in this experiment are 0,1,2
E XA MP L E #2
Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from an urn
containing 5 orange balls and 6 violet balls. Let V be the random variable
representing the no. of violet balls. Find the values of the random
variable V.
Given:
Orange balls = 5
Violet balls = 6
Required: random number V = no. of violet balls.
Solution: S = {OO, OV,VO,VV}
 I L L U S T R AT I O N : S A M P L E S PA C E
FIRST SECOND OUTCOME NUMBER
BALL PICK BALL OF VIOLET
PICK BALLS
OO 0 Therefore, the
random variable
OV 1 V = {0,1,2}

VO 1

VV 2
E XA MP L E #2
A basket contains 10 red balls and 4 white balls. If three balls are taken
from the basket one after the other, determine the possible values of the
random variable “R” representing the number of red balls.
Given:
Red balls = 10
White balls = 4
3 balls are to be taken from 1 basket
Required: random number R = no. of Red balls.
 I L L U S T R AT I O N : S A M P L E S PA C E
1ST POSSIBLE 2ND POSSIBLE 3RD POSSIBLE OUTCOME # OF
BALL PICK BALL PICK BALL PICK POSSIBLE RED
BALLS
RRR 3

RRW 2

RWR 2

WRR 2

WWR 1
 I L L U S T R AT I O N : S A M P L E S PA C E
1ST POSSIBLE 2ND POSSIBLE 3RD POSSIBLE OUTCOME # OF
BALL PICK BALL PICK BALL PICK POSSIBLE RED
BALLS
WRW 1

RWW 1

WWW 0

The generated sample space is S = {RRR, RRW, RWR, WRR,

WWR, WRW, RWW, WWW}
And the values of the random variable R = {0,1,2,3}
 Four coins are tossed.
Let T be the random variable
representing the number of tails
that occur. Find the values of the
random variable T.

T RY T H I S !
EXERCISE #1
 A pair of dice is rolled. Let X be
the random variable representing
the number of dots on the top
faces. Find the values of the
random variable X.

T RY T H I S !
EXERCISE #2
P RO B A B I L I T Y
P RO B A B I L I T Y

• The probability of an outcome e in a sample space S is a

number P between 1 and 0 that measures the likelihood that e
will occur on a single trial of the corresponding random
experiment
• The probability of an event A is the sum of the probabilities of
the individual outcomes of which it is composed. It is denoted
by P(A)
P RO B A B I L I T Y O F A N E V E N T

• If an event E is 𝐸 = 𝑒1 , 𝑒2 , … , 𝑒𝑘 then:
𝑷 𝑬 = 𝑷 𝒆𝟏 + 𝑷 𝒆𝟐 + ⋯ + 𝑷 𝒆𝒌
The following figure expresses the content of the definition of
the probability of an event:
𝐴 = 𝑒1 , 𝑒2
𝐵 = {𝑒2 , 𝑒3 , 𝑒4 }
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑝1 + 𝑝2
𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑝2 + 𝑝3 + 𝑝4

Since the whole sample space S is an event that is

certain to occur, the sum of the probabilities of all
outcomes must be 1
T H R E E T Y P E S O F P RO B A B I L I T Y

• CLASSICAL APPROACH (THEORETICAL

PROBABILITY)
• EMPIRICAL PROBABILITIES
• SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES
C L A S S I C A L A P P RO A C H ( T H E O R E T I C A L
P RO B A B I L I T Y )
• Formula for classical approach is:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐴 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑆
The classical approach can only be used if each outcome has equal
probabilities.
• To compute for the total number of possible outcomes, we can use the
Combinations Formula:
𝑵!
𝑪 𝑵, 𝒏 =
𝒏! 𝑵 − 𝒏 !
or we can use the calculator function nCr. If we are not given the
probabilities of each outcome.
 • Step 1: Make the sample space
E XA MP L E 1
A die is called “balanced” or
“fair” if each side is equally
likely to land on top. Assign a • Step 2: Compute for the probabilities of
probability to each outcome in each event
the sample space for the E=
experiment that consists of
tossing a single fair die.
Find the probabilities of the
events T=
E: an even number is rolled.
T: a number greater than 2 is
rolled.
 • Step 1: Construct your sample
EXAMPLE 2 space
Two fair coins are tossed. Find S=
the probability that the coins
match (either both land heads
Step 2: Count the frequency of
or both land tails)
each outcome and compute for the
probabilities
HH = 1/4
HT = 1/4
TH = 1/4
TT = 1/4
 • Step 3: Since we know the
EXAMPLE 2 probabilities of each outcome, find
Two fair coins are tossed. Find the events that the coins are
the probability that the coins matching.
match (either both land heads P(M) = probability that the coins
or both land tails) are matching
Those probabilities are P(HH) and
P(TT).
P(M) = P(HH)+P(TT)
 EXAMPLE 3
• The breakdown of the student body in a local high school according
to race and ethnicity is 51% white (W), 27% black (B), 11% Hispanic
(H), 6% Asian (A) and 5% for all others (O).
• A student is randomly selected from this high school. Find the
probabilities of the following events:
a. B = student is black
b. M = student is not white
c. N = student is not black
Solution:
1. Construct your Sample Space, S
S = {W,B,H,A,O}
2. Since the probabilities of each outcome is given:

Outcome W B H A O
Probability 0.51 0.27 0.11 0.06 0.05

3. Compute for the probabilities of each event happening.

T RY T H I S !
The student body in the high school considered in the last example may be
broken down into ten categories:
Ethnicity/Race Male Female
WHITE 25% 26%
BLACK 15% 12%
HISPANIC 5% 6%
ASIAN 3% 3%
OTHERS 4% 1%

Find the probabilities of the following events:

a. B = the student is Black
b. NWF = the student is non-white female
c. FN = the student is female and is not black
E M P I R I C A L P RO B A B I L I T Y
E M P I R I C A L P RO B A B I L I T Y

• The experiment is performed many times and the number of

times that event A occurs is recorded. Then the probability is
approximated by finding the relative frequency.
• The formula for Empirical Probability is:

𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝐴 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑

𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑
 • Step 1: Construct your sample
EXAMPLE1
space
A fair die was rolled 120 times,
find the number of time “5” S = {1,2,3,4,6}
turned up. • Step 2: We all know that the
Let: A = event that 5 turns up probability of each face is 1/6. We
in 120 rolls then multiply the number of trials
Required: P(A) to the probability P(5) to get the
probability of occurrence of an
event.
1
P(A) = 120 = 20
6
Therefore, the occurrence of “5” is
20 out of 120 (on average)
C O M P O U N D P RO B A B I L I T I E S
C O M P O U N D P RO B A B I L I T Y

• Is the probability of a compound event. Generally, it is the

ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of
outcomes within the sample space of the compound event
and can be calculated using one of two rules: the addition
rule and the multiplication rule.
A D D I T I O N RU L E
• The addition rule can be used for compound events in which the simple
events involved do not occur together. This is referred to as being
“mutually exclusive”.
Definition of Terms:
• Mutually Exclusive – those events that do not occur at the same time
For example: a person cannot weigh 160lbs and 162 lbs at the same
time.
To find the probability that any one of several mutually exclusive events
occurs, use the addition rule, and add the probabilities of each event:
𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷(𝑩)
EXAMPLE1 Probability distribution for the
weight of students in a class
Find the probability that a randomly
Weight (kg) Relative
selected student will weigh 50kg or
frequency
more.
54 or more 0.09
Let:
53 0.07
X = random variable representing a
52 0.09
student’s weight.
51 0.14
P X ≥ 50 = probability that a
student weighs 50kgs 50 0.17
49 0.15
48 0.08
47 0.06
46 0.04
45 or less 0.11
M U LT I P L I C A T I O N RU L E
• The multiplication rule can be used to determine the
probability of a cluster of simple events depending on
whether the events are independent events or dependent
events
Definition of Terms:
Independent events – is/are event/s that is/are not affected
by the outcome of any other events. This is in contrast with
dependent events.
P RO B A B I L I T Y O F I N D E P E N D E N T E V E N T S

• The probability of a compound event where the events are

independent can be found by multiplying the probabilities of
each independent event that makes up the compound event.
Given two events, A and B, with probabilities P(A) and P(B):

𝑷 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 = 𝑷(𝑨) ∙ 𝑷(𝑩)

EXAMPLE 2

• What is the probability of a die that is rolled twice landing on 3

both times?
Given:
P(A) = probability of the 1 st roll landing on 3
P(B) = probability of the 2 nd roll landing on 3

Solution: