1.

Sample space, events

The general se ng is: We perform an experiment which can have a number of different outcomes. The sample
space is the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment. We usually call it S.

If I toss a coin three mes and record the result, the sample space is S ={HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT},
where (for example) HTH means ‘heads on the first toss, then tails, then heads again’.

Some mes we can assume that all the outcomes are equally likely. (Don’t assume this unless either you are
told to, or there is some physical reason for assuming it.
Example 1: A coin is thrown 3 mes .what is the probability that atleast one head is obtained?
Sol: Sample space = [HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT]
Total number of ways = 2 × 2 × 2 = 8. Fav. Cases = 7
P (A) = 7/8
OR
P (of ge ng at least one head) = 1 – P (no head)⇒ 1 – (1/8) = 7/8

Example 2: Find the probability of ge ng a numbered card when a card is drawn from the pack of 52 cards.
Sol: Total Cards = 52. Numbered Cards = (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) 9 from each suit 4 × 9 = 36
P (E) = 36/52 = 9/13

Example 3: There are 5 green 7 red balls. Two balls are selected one by one without replacement. Find the
probability that first is green and second is red.
Sol: P (G) × P (R) = (5/12) x (7/11) = 35/132

Example 4: What is the probability of ge ng a sum of 7 when two dice are thrown?
Sol: Probability math - Total number of ways = 6 × 6 = 36 ways. Favorable cases = (1, 6) (6, 1) (2, 5) (5, 2) (3, 4)
(4, 3) --- 6 ways. P (A) = 6/36 = 1/6

Example 5: 1 card is drawn at random from the pack of 52 cards.

(i) Find the Probability that it is an honor card.
(ii) It is a face card.
Sol: (i) honor cards = (A, J, Q, K) 4 cards from each suits = 4 × 4 = 16
P (honor card) = 16/52 = 4/13
(ii) face cards = (J,Q,K) 3 cards from each suit = 3 × 4 = 12 Cards.
P (face Card) = 12/52 = 3/13

Example 6: Two cards are drawn from the pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that both are diamonds or
both are kings.
Sol: Total no. of ways = 52C2
Case I: Both are diamonds = 13C2
Case II: Both are kings = 4C2
P (both are diamonds or both are kings) = (13C2 + 4C2 ) / 52C2

Example 7: Three dice are rolled together. What is the probability as ge ng at least one '4'?
Sol: Total number of ways = 6 × 6 × 6 = 216. Probability of ge ng number ‘4’ at least one me
= 1 – (Probability of ge ng no number 4) = 1 – (5/6) x (5/6) x (5/6) = 91/216

Example 8: A problem is given to three persons P, Q, R whose respec ve chances of solving it are 2/7, 4/7, 4/9
respec vely. What is the probability that the problem is solved?
Sol: Probability of the problem ge ng solved = 1 – (Probability of none of them solving the problem)

Probability of problem ge ng solved = 1 – (5/7) x (3/7) x (5/9) = (122/147)

Example 9: Find the probability of ge ng two heads when five coins are tossed.
Sol: Number of ways of ge ng two heads = 5C2 = 10. Total Number of ways = 25 = 32
P (two heads) = 10/32 = 5/16

Example 10: What is the probability of ge ng a sum of 22 or more when four dice are thrown?
Sol: Total number of ways = 64 = 1296. Number of ways of ge ng a sum 22 are 6,6,6,4 = 4! / 3! = 4
6,6,5,5 = 4! / 2!2! = 6. Number of ways of ge ng a sum 23 is 6,6,6,5 = 4! / 3! = 4.
Number of ways of ge ng a sum 24 is 6,6,6,6 = 1.
Fav. Number of cases = 4 + 6 + 4 + 1 = 15 ways. P (ge ng a sum of 22 or more) = 15/1296 = 5/432

Example 11: Two dice are thrown together. What is the probability that the number obtained on one of the
dice is mul ple of number obtained on the other dice?
Sol:Total number of cases = 62 = 36
Since the number on a die should be mul ple of the other, the possibili es are
(1, 1) (2, 2) (3, 3) ------ (6, 6) --- 6 ways
(2, 1) (1, 2) (1, 4) (4, 1) (1, 3) (3, 1) (1, 5) (5, 1) (6, 1) (1, 6) --- 10 ways
(2, 4) (4, 2) (2, 6) (6, 2) (3, 6) (6, 3) -- 6 ways
Favorable cases are = 6 + 10 + 6 = 22. So, P (A) = 22/36 = 11/18

Example 12: From a pack of cards, three cards are drawn at random. Find the probability that each card is from
different suit.
Sol: Total number of cases = 52C3
One card each should be selected from a different suit. The three suits can be chosen in 4C3 was
The cards can be selected in a total of (4C3) x (13C1) x (13C1) x (13C1)
Probability = 4C3 x (13C1)3 / 52C3
= 4 x (13)3 / 52C3

Example 13: Find the probability that a leap year has 52 Sundays.
Sol: A leap year can have 52 Sundays or 53 Sundays. In a leap year, there are 366 days out of which there are
52 complete weeks & remaining 2 days. Now, these two days can be (Sat, Sun) (Sun, Mon) (Mon, Tue) (Tue,
Wed) (Wed, Thur) (Thur, Friday) (Friday, Sat).
So there are total 7 cases out of which (Sat, Sun) (Sun, Mon) are two favorable cases. So, P (53 Sundays) = 2 / 7
Now, P(52 Sundays) + P(53 Sundays) = 1
So, P (52 Sundays) = 1 - P(53 Sundays) = 1 – (2/7) = (5/7)

Example 14: Fi een people sit around a circular table. What are odds against two par cular people si ng
together?
Sol: 15 persons can be seated in 14! Ways. No. of ways in which two par cular people sit together is 13! × 2!
The probability of two par cular persons si ng together 13!2! / 14! = 1/7
Odds against the event = 6 : 1
 Bayes' theorem
It describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of condi ons related to the event
 Discrete probability

Discrete random variables and probability distribu ons

A discrete random variable is a variable that can only take on discrete values. For example, if we flip a coin twice, we can
only get heads zero mes, one me, or two mes. We can’t get heads 1.5 mes, or 0.31 mes. The number of heads we
can get takes on a discrete set of values: 0, 1, and 2. A con nuous random variable, on the other hand, can take on any
value in a certain interval. In probability distribu ons for all random variables, the probabili es of
each of the possibili es has to sum to 1, or 100 % . For example, if I flip a coin twice, I can get any of the following
outcomes

HH

TH

HT

TT

There are four possible outcomes, and one of them where I get 0 heads, so the probability of ge ng 0 heads is 1/4. In HT
and TH I get 1 heads, so the probability of ge ng 1 heads is 2/4. In HH I get 2 heads, so the probability of ge ng 2 heads
is 1/4.

Now we can tell that this is a valid discrete probability distribu on, because

1/4 +2/4 +1/4 =1 =100%

The fact that a valid probability distribu on always sums to 100 % allows us to find missing values in our data. For
example, if instead we’d been told that the table below tells us the probability of ge ng a certain number of heads when
we flip a coin twice

we could calculate the missing value by subtrac ng the known probabili es from 1.00. So we could say that the
probability of ge ng exactly 2 heads is

P(2 heads) = 1.00 − 0.25 − 0.50 = 0.25

Or we could take the same informa on and graph the distribu on this way:

Expected value
Once we have a probability distribu on for a discrete random variable, X, we can calculate the expected value E(X ),
which is the mean of X. The expected value is o en referred to as the “long term average.” When we run an experiment
over and over and over again, this is the mean we’d expect to find. To find this value for a discrete random variable, we
have to “weight” each value.
For example, if we want to find the expected value for the number of heads when we flip a coin two mes, we’ll mul ply
each value of X by the corresponding value of P(X ), and then add them all together.

So the expected value is

Therefore, on average, we’ll expect to get 1 heads when we flip a coin two mes. We can then extrapolate this to guess
that, for example, we should get 50 heads when we flip a coin 100 mes.

Variance and standard devia on

We can also find the variance and standard devia on for discrete random variables. To find the variance, we’ll take the
difference between X and the mean, μX, square that difference, and then mul ply the result by the probability of X,
called P(X ). We’ll do that for each value of X, and then add all those results together to get the variance,

We can also find the standard devia on of X, σX, which is just the square root of the variance.
 Permuta on and Combina on

Fundamental principle of coun ng

1. Mul plica on principle (Fundamental Principle of Coun ng)

Suppose an event E can occur in m different ways and associated with each way of occurring of E, another event F
can occur in n different ways, then the total number of occurrence of the two events in the given order is m × n .

2. Addi on principle

If an event E can occur in m ways and another event F can occur in n ways, and suppose that both can not occur
together, then E or F can occur in m + n ways.

3. Permuta ons: A permuta on is an arrangement of objects in a definite order.

4 Permuta on of n different objects. The number of permuta ons of n objects taken all at a me, denoted by the

symbol is given by

where n factorial = n(n – 1) (n – 2) ... 3.2.1, read as factorial n, or n factorial.

The number of permuta ons of n objects taken r at a me, where 0 < r ≤ n, denoted by nPr, is given by
We assume that

5. Combina ons On many occasions we are not interested in arranging but only in selec ng r objects from given n
objects. A combina on is a selec on of some or all of a number of different objects where the order of selec on is
immaterial. The number of selec ons of r objects from the given n objects is denoted by nCr , and is given by
Bernoulli Distribu on
Binomial Distribu on
 Geometric Distribu on
The geometric distribu on is a sta s cal model that describes the number of failures that occur before the first
success in a series of independent and iden cal Bernoulli trials. It is used in fields such as engineering, computer
science, and economics.

The number of mes a customer must call a company before their issue is resolved: Each me a customer calls, there
is a fixed probability that their issue will be resolved on the first call. If it is not resolved, they must call again and try
their luck again, crea ng a geometric distribu on.
Exponen al Distribu on

Mean

Variance