A Sustainable Energy
Future
Paul Komor
ESTCON 2014
Earthrise, 1968
1968-2014
Great success in
reducing emissions!
EU: SOx down 82%
SOx US: SO2 down 79%
Cuyahoga River, 1969
Cuyahoga River, 2014
But challenges remain…
Challenge: Energy Costs
Challenge: Limited Fossil
Fuel Supplies
Challenge: Energy
Access
Challenge: CO2
Emissions
We did not come to fear the future. We
came here to shape it.
President Obama, Sep. 9, 2009
What Might a Sustainable Energy
Future Look Like?
0 CO2, 0 Net Energy
House
~ 0 Net Energy Office
Building
~ 0 Net Energy
Apartments
Zero Tailpipe Emission
Vehicles
If something exists, it
must be possible.
Source: IEA, WEO 2013
Paths to a Sustainable
Energy Future
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Keys to a Sustainable
Energy Future
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy
Unlimited and sustainable resource
Available anywhere the sun shines or the wind
blows
~0 CO2 emissions
Wind Power
A global success story!
~25% annual growth rate,
2007-2012
Now provides >20% of
electricity in Denmark,
Portugal, and parts of
Germany, Australia, and the
U.S.
Source: REN 21
Malaysia Wind Resource:
Worth a Closer Look
Source: IRENA
Global Atlas
Photovoltaics (PV)
Dramatic cost reductions in last 5
years
In transition from niche to low-
cost option
Will revolutionize the electricity
industry
Source: REN 21
PV: ~$3/W
Source: DOE, 2013
PV the lowest cost option!
“This is the first time that we’ve seen, purely on a price basis, th
-David Eves, CEO, Xcel Energy
Source: Denver Business Journal
Malaysia Solar Resource
Covering 0.3% of
Peninsular Malaysia with
solar PV panels would
provide as much electricity
as Malaysia uses each
year.
Renewable Energy
“…(renewable energy) accounted for just over half of the new e
Source: IPCC, 2014
Keys to a Sustainable
Energy Future
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Energy Efficiency: The
Lowest Cost Resource
Energy Efficiency: The
Lowest Cost Resource
Example: Replace 75 watt light with 10 watt LED. Electricity
demand reduced by (75-10) = 65 watts.
LED costs $5. Assume ‘on’ 8 hours/day.
$5/(65/3) = $0.23/watt (compare to new coal at ~$2/watt).
The low-cost power plant at
my local DIY store
90% lower first cost than a
coal-burning power plant
The ‘negawatt’ power plant
Source: IEA, 2013
Source: McKinsey, 2010
Energy Efficiency: Low hanging fruit
that grows back!
Keys to a Sustainable
Energy Future
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovation
Energy Innovations:
My top 10
1. The negawatt power
plant
2. The solar lease
3. Storage Techologies
Source: Komor et al. 2012
4. Mobile Storage
5. Very smart thermostats
6. Integrated
home/car/power plant
Source: NYT, 3/25/14
7. System Integration
Source: IEA, 2014
8. Networked
Technologies
Source: IEA, 2013
9. Policy innovation
Source: IEA, 2014
10. Innovative energy
education
engineeringanywhere.colorado.edu
What next?
Change is underway, but needs to accelerate
Need to increase adoption of known solutions
Need to promote innovation in business models,
technologies, policies, and institutions
A sustainable future is within our reach!
b
Earthrise, 1968 Earthrise, 2068
END
References
IPCC 2014: http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-
for-policymakers_approved.pdf
McKinsey global cost curve:
http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/green
house_gas_abatement_cost_curves
Storage graph: Komor and Glassmire 2012, IRENA report
World lighting market data: IEA 2013 Energy Efficiency Market Report
earth rise picture: http://grin.hq.nasa.gov/ABSTRACTS/GPN-2001-
000009.html
System integration graphic: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2014
Honda house: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/25/business/car-companies-take-expertise-
in-battery-power-beyond-the-
garage.html?emc=edit_tnt_20140325&nlid=48405466&tntemail0=y&_r=1
EU emissions data: EU Emission Inventory Report
http://www.eea.europa.eu//publications/eu-emission-inventory-report-lrtap
US coal consumption and emissions: http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/quarterlytracking.html
crude oil price summary: http://www.eia.gov/beta/MER/index.cfm?tbl=T09.01#/?f=A
Energy poverty numbers: http://www.iea.org/topics/energypoverty/
Obama quote: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-to-a-
Joint-Session-of-Congress-on-Health-Care
Davis housing:
http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2013/11/27/uc-davis-west-village-sustainable-energy-future
India 0 energy building:
http://www.indiraparyavaranbhawan.com
Malaysia 0 energy building:
http://www.cleanenergyactionproject.com/CleanEnergyActionPr
oject/CS.Pusat_Tenaga_Malaysia_Zero_Energy_Office_Buildi
ng___Zero_Net_Energy_Building_Case_Study.html
Wind data: REN 21
Malaysia elec demand:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_Malaysia
Wind cost data: DOE, 2012 - Wiser et al. 2013, http://emp.lbl.gov/reports
IRENA global atlas: http://globalatlas.irena.org
US PV cost data: DOE, 2013 - Feldman et al. http://emp.lbl.gov/reports
Malaysia PV potential: Medium dark brown is 20 MJ/m2/day (
http://161.142.139.60/solar/peninsula/annual.jpg ) 1 MJ = 0.28 kWh (direct
conversion). Malaysia total elec. use = 94E9 kWh/yr
(http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=my&v=81 ) Land area of Pen
May ~ 132,000 km2
(https://www.google.com/#q=peninsular+malaysia+land+area ). 1% =
1320 km2 = 1320E6 m2 = 2.64E10 MJ/day. 10% conversion effic.:
2.64E10 * 0,28 * 0.1 = = 739E6 kWh/day = 270E9 kWh/yr.
