STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

MODULE 2: RANDOM VARIABLES AND

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
VISAYAS STATE UNIVERSITY INTEGRATED
HIGH SCHOOL
MODULE OVERVIEW

In this module, we will learn about how probability is used in

model building. This module discusses the basic concepts of
probability, random variables, the probability distribution of the
discrete random variables, probability density function, and the
normal distribution.
MOTIVATION QUESTION

How is a probability distribution of a random variable used to model

the behavior of a characteristic of interest?
LESSON 2.1 PROBABILITY

LESSON SUMMARY

In order to understand what a probability distribution conveys and

how it is constructed, we need to understand the language of probability
first which will be discussed in this lesson.
LEARNING OUTCOMES

At the end of the lessons, the students should be able to define

probability in terms of empirical frequencies, show how to apply the
general addition rule and the multiplication rule, and understand
conditional probabilities.
MOTIVATION QUESTION

What is probability and how can we assign it?

DISCUSSION
RANDOM EXPERIMENT

 a process that can be repeated under similar conditions but whose

outcome cannot be predicted with certainty beforehand.

 All of these processes generate outcomes that may vary each time we
repeat the process, even under exactly the same conditions.
DISCUSSION
In a random process, an outcome may be:

1. CERTAIN – the outcome is certain. Examples may be getting

a head in the next toss of a two-headed coin or getting a number of
at most 6 when a die is thrown once.

2. IMPOSSIBLE – the outcome is impossible. Examples may be

getting a tail in the next toss of a two-headed coin or
getting a number greater than 6 when a die is thrown once.
DISCUSSION

3. EVEN CHANCE – the outcome is has an even chance of

occurring. Examples may be a couple having a boy as their next
child or getting a red card when randomly selecting a
card from a deck of cards.

4. STRONG BUT UNCERTAIN OCCURRENCE – the outcome has

a strong but not a certain chance of occurring.
Example might be getting a sum of at most 11 when a pair of dice
is thrown.
DISCUSSION
SAMPLE SPACE

 denoted by Ω, is the collection of all possible outcomes of a random

experiment.

SAMPLE POINT

 an element of the sample space

SIMPLE EVENTS

 or simply event, are basic possible outcomes of a random experiment.

LESSON 2.1 PROBABILITY
 is used to quantify the chance that a particular outcome will occur in a
random experiment.
The following are the properties of the probability of an event:
• the probability of an event is a non-negative value. In fact, it ranges from
zero (0) to one (1). The closer the value to one, the more likely the event
will occur.
• The probabilities of all the simple events within a sample space must sum
to 1.
• The probability of a certain or sure event is one.
PROBABILITY
 each outcome in a sample space is equally likely

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐸 ( 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠)

𝑃 ( 𝐸 )=
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒(𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠)
EXAMPLE
Find the probability of randomly selecting an orange marble out of a jar
containing 3 blue, 3 red, and 2 orange marbles.

𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 2 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝟐 𝟏
𝑃 ( 1𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 ) = = = = =𝟎 .𝟐𝟓=𝟐𝟓 %
𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 8 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝟖 𝟒
EXAMPLE
What is the probability of selecting the letter “r” from the letters in the word
random?

𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 1 −𝑟 𝟏
𝑃 ( 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 ′ 𝑟 ′ )= = = =𝟎 . 𝟏𝟕=𝟏𝟕 %
𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 6 − 𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝟔
ILLUSTRATIONS
1. Experiment: Observe the up face on a coin
EVENT H T TOTAL
Probability 1/2 1/2 1

2. Experiment: Observe the up face on a die

EVENT 1 2 3 4 5 6 TOTAL
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1
ILLUSTRATIONS

3. Experiment: Observe the up faces on two coins

EVENT HH HT TH TT TOTAL
Probability 1/4 1/4 1/4 ¼ 1
COMPOUND EVENT

 is a collection of simple events consisting of two or more simple events.

Two ways to form compound events:

1. Union of Events – the union of two events, say A and B, is the

event that occurs if either A or B or both occur on a single
performance of the experiment.
This is denoted by
COMPOUND EVENT
EXAMPLE

Consider the die toss experiment. Let 𝐴 be the event of tossing an even
number and 𝐵 be the event of tossing a number less than or equal to 3. Find
COMPOUND EVENT
SOLUTION
The sample space is Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

A = event of tossing an even number = {2, 4, 6)

B = event of tossing a number less than or equal to 3 = {1, 2, 3}

Therefore, is
COMPOUND EVENT

2. Intersection of Events – the intersection of two events, say

A and B, is the event that occurs if both A or B on a single
performance of the experiment.
This is denoted by
COMPOUND EVENT
EXAMPLE

Consider the die toss experiment. Let 𝐴 be the event of tossing an even
number and 𝐵 be the event of tossing a number less than or equal to 3. Find
COMPOUND EVENT
SOLUTION
The sample space is Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

A = event of tossing an even number = {2, 4, 6)

B = event of tossing a number less than or equal to 3 = {1, 2, 3}

Therefore, is
IMPORTANT NOTES

1. We use P to denote probability.

2. The probability that an event, denoted by A, will occur is symbolized by

P(A).
PROBABILITY
Example: A box contains green and blue chips. A chip is then drawn from the
box. If it is green, you win P100. If it is blue, you win nothing.

You have a choice between two boxes:

- Box A with 3 blue chips and 2 green chips
- Box B with 30 blue chips and 20 green chips

Which would you prefer???

ADDITION RULE
 If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

 A more general result (also called the General Addition Rule) states that:
EXAMPLE

Hospital records show that 12% of all patients are admitted for surgical
treatment, 16% are admitted for obstetrics, and 2% receive both obstetrics and
surgical treatments. If a new patient is admitted to the hospital, what is the
probability that the patient will be admitted either for surgery, obstetrics, or
both?
EXAMPLE
SOLUTION:

Let A = event that patients are admitted for surgical treatment

B = event that patients are admitted for obstetrics
COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT

 The complement of an event A (denoted by ) is the event that happens

when A does not occur.

 Thus, to compute for the probability of :

or equivalently,

In consequence, the chance that an event does not occur is one (1) minus the
chance it does occur.
COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 The probability of event A occurring when we already know that some

event B has already occurred.

 Let A and B be two events where 𝑃(𝐵) > 0. The conditional probability of event
A given the occurrence of event B, denoted by 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) (read as “probability of
A given B”) is
EXAMPLE

Suppose that we want to randomly select a student from among Grades 9 to

12 in a certain school. Given the table, what is the probability of selecting a Grade
11 student, given that the student is male?
EXAMPLE: SOLUTION
Define events A and B as:
Sex
Grade Total
Male Female A = event that students is grade 11
B = event that student selected is male
9 84 145 229
10 40 82 122
11 36 52 88
12 25 36 61
Total 185 315 500
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

 Two events is A and B are said to be independent events if and only if one of
the following conditions is satisfied:

Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent.

EXAMPLE
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair dice twice.

We let:

A = event of an even number of dots on the first toss

B = event of observing more than 4 dots on the second toss
C = event of observing less than 6 dots on the first toss

Determine whether A and B, B and C, and A and C are independent.

EXAMPLE: SOLUTION
The sample space is:

Ω = {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),
(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6), (5,1),(5,2),
(5,3),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}

We get the following probabilities for events A, B, and C:

EXAMPLE: SOLUTION
We get the following conditional probabilities:
KEY POINTS
 Probability is a numerical representation of the likelihood of occurrence of
an event. Its value is between zero (0) and one (1). When the value
approaches 1, this means the event is very likely to occur, while a value
close to zero (0) means it is not likely to occur.
 When A and B are mutually exclusive events, then the probability of A or
B is 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) (this is called the Addition Rule).
 If A and B are independent events, then the probability of A and B is 𝑃(𝐴
∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵) (this is called the Multiplication Rule).
LEARNING ACTIVITY
 LESSON 2.2 RANDOM
VARIABLES
LESSON SUMMARY

In this lesson, the concept of a random variable is discussed. The notion

of a statistical experiment is defined as well as random variables that relate to
experiments. Finally, two types of random variables, discrete and continuous,
are described.
LEARNING OUTCOMES

At the end of the lesson, the students should be able to illustrate or provide
examples of random variables, distinguish between discrete and continuous
random variables, and find possible values of a random variable.
MOTIVATION QUESTION

How is a characteristic of interest modeled as a random variable?

MOTIVATION QUESTION

How is a characteristic of interest modeled as a random variable?

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
 is an activity that will produce outcomes, or a process that will
generate data. The outcomes have a corresponding chance of
occurrence.

 Examples of which are (a) tossing three coins and counting the
number of heads, (b) recording the time a person can hold his/her
breath, (c) counting the number of students in the classroom who are
present today, (d) obtaining the height of a student, etc.

 Statistical experiments can have a few or a lot of possible outcomes.

RANDOM VARIABLE X
 is a function whose value 𝑥 is a real number that is determined by
each sample point un the sample space.

 That is, 𝑋 is called a random variable because the value that 𝑋

assumes in a given experiment is a chance or random outcome.

 In model building, the characteristic of interest is treated as a

random variable.
RANDOM VARIABLE X

 The term “random” is added to emphasize the requirement that the

realized or actual value of the random variable depends on the
outcome of a statistical experiment.

 Each outcome or sample point must be mapped to exactly one real

number or value of the random variable.
RANDOM VARIABLE X

 Random variables are central to the use of probability in practice.

 They help model random phenomena, that is, random variables are
relevant to a wide range of human activities and disciplines, including
agriculture, biology, ecology, economics, medicine, meteorology,
physics, psychology, computer science, engineering, and others.
RANDOM VARIABLE X

 They are used to model outcomes of random processes that cannot be

predicted deterministically in advance (but the range of numerical
outcomes may, however, be viewed).
TYPE OF RANDOM VARIABLES
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES
 are random variables that can take on a finite (or countably infinite) number
of distinct values.

 Examples are the number of heads obtained when tossing a coin thrice, the
number of siblings a person has, the number of students present in a
classroom at a given time, the number of crushes a person has at a particular
time, etc.

 Categorical variables can be considered discrete variables.

TYPE OF RANDOM VARIABLES
CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES
 are random variables that take an infinitely uncountable number of possible
values, typically measurable quantities.

 Examples are the time a person can hold his/her breath, the height or
weight or BMI of a person (if measured very accurately), the time a person
takes for a person to bathe.

 The values that a continuous random variable can lie on a continuum, such
as intervals.
KEY POINTS
 A Random Variable may be viewed as a way to map outcomes of a
statistical experiment determined by chance into number.

 There are two types of random variables:

• Discrete: takes on a finite (or countably infinite) number of values

• Continuous: takes an infinitely uncountable number of possible
values, typically measurable quantities