KEMBAR78
Science and software development | PPTX
Science and Software
    Development
Inspiration
It reveals that the length of our heels,
  or the distance between our ankle
   joint and the back of the Achilles
 tendon, seems to have an impact on
  the development of the size of our
              calf muscles
Why Science and
Software Development?
But first …
… a little memory
test, try to
remember the
names, without
writing them down
sci·ence (ˈsīəns/) noun.
  A systematically organized body of knowledge
  on a particular subject
en·gi·neer·ing (enjəˈni(ə)riNG) noun.
  The branch of science and technology
  concerned with the design, building, and use
  of engines, machines, and structures
False
Dichotomy
If we’re
scientist we’re
no longer
craftsmen?
Hear Surgeons
and Lace Makers
Scientific Method

       Theory


Evidence     Experiment
Science is a way of
try not to fool
yourself ... and
you are the
easiest person to
fool.
- Richard Feynman
A study shows on
average people who
consult psychics
more often live
longer.
Can you explain this
result?
On average:
• Women live longer
  that men
• Women are more
  likely to consult a
  psychic
Why women live
lover than men
… or
Name some
people from the
earlier list.
In the list read
out earlier, was
there more men
or women?
There were more
women than men
Availability bias:
The overestimation of the
importance of anything
memorable or vivid
Example triplet:
8 10 12

Guess the hidden
rule by testing
other triplets.
Hidden rule:
Any three positive
integers
Confirmation Bias:
Tendency of people to
favor information that
confirms their beliefs
Placebo
Effect
Overconfidence:
A survey found 95% of
British drivers thought
they were above average
motorist
Randomized
Controlled
Trials
Non-disclosure
of interests
Wisdom Teeth
Policy Change
In medicine is
consider important
that people teaching
and make policy
decisions are still
practicing regularly
What can you do?


Use experiments/Be aware of bias:
• View testing as an experiment
• Gather data and use as decision
  making aid
• Encourage your organisition to use
  randomized controlled trails
What can you do?


Encourage closer relations with acadeamia:
• Stay in touch with your lecturers
• Read journals
• Join university mentor schemes
• Join professional organizations
What can you do?


Next time someone tells you something,
ask where the evidence is!
Books
Disclosure
of Interests
Questions?

Science and software development

Editor's Notes

  • #7 Currently little use of experiments and the scientific method in the software industryThe aim of this talk is:Explain what scientific method isShow that it is needed in software developmentExplain how other industries use scientific method
  • #11 Science and Engineer are not completely separate entities, they cannot exist without each otherAll scientist need engineering to some extent as it is necessary for good experiment design
  • #13 - From Guardian Weekly Science Podcast 06 Feb 2012: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/audio/2012/feb/06/medical-research-anthropology
  • #14 The software industry tends to believe theories can be validated by reasoning aloneHalf of all business fail why should software methodologies do any better?
  • #17 - Based on experiment used by Susan Blackmore, see page P138 the Geek Manifesto by Mark Henderson
  • #24 Definition was taken from WikipediaUsed extensively by Ad men, not least in pricing things 4.99 € rather than 5.00 €See p11-24 of Irrationality by Stuart Sutherland
  • #27 Definition was taken from WikipediaPeople have a tendency to look for data that fits existing theories rather than look for counter examplesSee P98-103, 109 Irrationality by Stuart Sutherland
  • #28 Red placebos are more effective than blue onesTwo placebos a day is more effective than onePlacebo saline injection is more effective than placebo pillsPeople change their behavior when they are observedSource: Bad Science by Ben Goldarce
  • #29 P175 Irrationality by Stuart Sutherland
  • #30 Studies include thing being tested and a control groupGroups allocated randomlyIncludes blinding where possibleSeek to minimize bias though safe guardsP128-132 The Geek Manifesto by Mark Henderson
  • #31 - We have come to expect self-interest/bias as the norm!
  • #32 Wisdom teeth have a habit of growing at funny angles, “impacted” in the jargonUp to the mid-1990s impacted teeth were extracted routinely, even if there was no pain or other symptomsJohnathan Shepard began a review to see if this policy was correct, he found no evidence that removing teeth where patients were not in pain had any benefitAs a result the policy was changed and the number of wisdom teeth removal were vastly reducedKey to this policy change was the fact that Johnathan Shepard practiced dentistry as well as teaching and researching the subjectSee p135 The Geek Manifesto by Mark Henderson