Hurricane Melissa strengthens 1000 miles from Florida as forecasters nervously track storm
Tropical Storm Melissa has been upgraded to a hurricane and it could pose a hurricane-level threat to the United States
Weather experts have issued a grave warning that Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to intensify into a hurricane as it moves closer to the Florida coast.
Even though the storm is currently 1,000 miles away from Florida's coast as of Wednesday, it's predicted to gain enough power to transform into a hurricane by Thursday. "There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa," stated the National Hurricane Center.
"Chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest," added NHC forecasters. The NHC defines a major hurricane as at least a Category three storm with sustained winds of 111 mph.
As of Wednesday, no warnings had been issued for Florida or the U.S., and it remains uncertain whether the hurricane will reach the state. "At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so," AccuWeather lead hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in an email to Naples Daily News.
So, where is Melissa headed?
"The more likely scenario is that the storm moves across Cuba and then heads out to sea," DaSilva continued. "By the end of this week into the weekend, Melissa is expected to stall or move very slowly near Jamaica or Hispaniola. Sometimes when tropical cyclones stall, unexpected things can happen, so we're watching closely," reports the Irish Star.
DaSilva noted that, should the unforeseen occur, Florida would probably experience an impact, "it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31)."
They continued, "There's nothing imminent right now, but it's something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data." DaSilva's assessment was supported by Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross, who also verified that Florida's odds of being struck "aren't zero, but they are extremely small."
Norcross continued, "The only way it could happen would be for Melissa to drift into the extreme western Caribbean before a dip in the jet stream moving across the U.S. came along to scoop it north." He continued, "There is no indication of that in the current reasonable track scenarios, however. Still, a track over Cuba and the Bahamas is not out of the question."
Accuweather reported that there was "a medium risk of tropical rain or wind impacts across the Bahamas and South Florida from Oct. 27-30."
Environmental factors wield power.
Based on Accuweather reports, Melissa's path is being shaped by a "dip in the jet stream." According to DaSilva, later "this week that dip will move away into the Atlantic, leaving the storm in a weak steering flow. That's why we expect it to stall near Jamaica or Hispaniola and possibly drift westward."
"The key question is how far west it can get. If it reaches the western Caribbean, Florida could come into play," they added. "We've seen late-season storms like Wilma take a similar route, though we're not forecasting that kind of track right now."
DaSilva noted that "another dip in the jet stream is expected early to mid-next week," and if Melissa is too far west before then, there's a possibility that the storm could be hurled toward South Florida. "The more likely outcome right now is that the storm stays east of Florida. We've seen a slight westward trend in the models over the past 12 hours, but that could be temporary," DaSilva clarified.
"We'll know more as new hurricane hunter data improves the model guidance over the next day or so," they added. "Weak steering currents make the forecast tricky, and that's why you see such a wide spread in the model plots."