Experts clash over one key element of New York weather forecast

As winter approaches, New Yorkers are faced with conflicting forecasts from some of the most respected weather prediction centers.

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Experts are clashing over long-range winter outlooks for the winter season in the New York City area this year.

Three well-known and highly respected climate prediction centers have differing opinions on exactly what the forecast should be for New York this winter.

One of the organizations, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its annual winter outlook last week. Additionally, The Farmer’s Almanac and The Old Farmer’s Almanac have released their predictions, claiming to use their unique method to produce them.

This year, however, the forecasts aren’t just slightly different; they’re almost the complete opposite.

The Farmers' Almanac, formed in 1818, has predicted snow and plummeting temperatures, which New Yorkers are fairly familiar with in winter. As it says, "Get ready to chill, snow, repeat.”

Meanwhile, NOAA forecasts using long-range climate computer models and atmospheric trends to make its own predictions. This includes the phenomenon of La Niña, which is often highly influential.

NOAA’s forecast includes a freezing winter for the northern tier and Upper Midwest, which indicates the winter could be much more frosty than normal.

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The experts at NOAA said, "This set of conditions slightly elevates the potential for colder temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., so it also supports favored below-normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest.”

New Yorkers to experience wild weather this winter

At the same time, The Farmers' Almanac says the upcoming season will see "dramatic swings and widespread winter weather."

The northern plains to New England are expected to have the coldest temperatures, while those on the East Coast are likely to be pummeled with a mixture of significant rain and snow.

However, unlike NOAA and The Farmers' Almanac, whose predictions are very similar, the Old Farmer's Almanac believes the winter will be much calmer.

While it says temperatures and extended dry stretches across the country look to be milder, some specific areas should "brace for a sharper chill."

The publications editor, Carol Connare, says, "Don’t lose track of your snow shovels and umbrellas.

“Most areas will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures, but from the Appalachians south through the Southeast and Florida, and westward across the Ohio Valley, we’re predicting a colder-than-normal winter."

The Old Farmer’s Almanac was established in 1792, so they will likely know much about predicting weather. While all the predictions come from a significant level of expertise, it will be tricky for New Yorkers to decide which to follow.