Risk Allocation
Risk Allocation
Position:
Senior Vice President of Project Monitoring and Claim Management of
Indonesia Infrastructre Guarantee Fund (IIGF / PT PII)
Academic Background:
• Doctor of Engineering, Urban & Environmental Engineering, Kyushu
University, Japan
• Master’s Degree, Urban & Environmental Engineering, Kyushu University,
Japan
• Bachelor’s Degree, Urban Planning, Diponegoro University, Indonesia
Experiences:
• Various feasibility study, design dan transation advisory of infrastructure projects in Japan,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Uzbekistan
• Project preparation and transaction advisory of PPP Projects
• Project appraisal of PPP projects in various sectors (water supply, toll road and
telecommunication)
• Project monitoring of various PPP projects guaranteed by IIGF
© 2018 | PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Persero)
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OUTLINE
Risk Allocation
Principles Reach
Value for Money
Risk towards to public sectors Capacity Risk transfered to public sector
for risk mitigation not necessarily give increasing risk premium higher
Value for Money project costs.
(As much as possible, all project risk are indentified, quantifed, and mitigated (prevented or impaired)
CA is commited to do their best effort for: Government and IIGF will appoint each
• Handling; representative in forming a committee which
aims to oversee the implementation of the
• Managing;
Project in accordance with the guarantee
• Preventing; dan agreement and to supervise the aspects of
• Reducing Risk Mitigation
Impact of the occurance of the infrstructure
risk under its responsibility based on the risk
already allocated in the cooperation
agreement and the project guarantee
agreement
Ministry Of Finance
Consession 45 years
Tariff Adjusment USD 15.3 M Period
Tariff Rp 1.100 / km at 2019
Political Risk USD 188 M
FIRR 16,3 %
Guarantee Period 15 since COD
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RISK ALLOCATION FOR PPP PROJECT
Toll Road Project (BOT Full consession scheme)
TYPE OF RISK ALLOCATION STAGE
Land acquistion
Change in law (specific) Construction, Operation
Demand risk Operation
Tariff adjustment Operation
Termination due to natural force majeure Operation
Political risk (including termination) Construction, Operation
Addition of land acquisition Pre-construction
Design risk Pre-construction
Permit risk Pre-construction
Sponsor risk (failed to achieve FC) Pre-construction
Construction risk Construction
Fluctuation risk of rate interest Construction
Limitation risk of construction space Construction
Cost overrun risk of construction Construction
Delay of construction Construction Private
Change in law (general) Operation Government
Operation and maintenance risk Operation
Guaranteed by IIGF
Inflation risk Operation
Handover risk from Private to Government Operation
Access Charge
Recourse Agreement Guarantee Agreement
Network User
Network Provider
Ministry of Ministry of
Public Works Finance
Bank (Debt) 70% Equity (30%)
Construction
support VGF Support
KOTA GRESIK PPP Contract Project Company
Government of Recourse
Agreement Water supply
East Java
KOTA SURABAYA Agreement
DAWUAN Guarantee
Agreement
PDAM PDAB
Water supply agreement
KOTA SIDOARJO
Contracting Governor of
Guaranteed Guarantee Agency East Jawa Province
KOTA PASURUAN Risk Exposure
Project Company PT Meta Adhya Tirta Umbulan
Termination
KAB PASURUAN USD 78 B Location East Java
Risks
SPRING WATER Investment USD 158 B
Breach of Transmision pipe 92,3 km
monthly USD 13.8 M
payment Service Target 1,3 – 1,8 M persons
Capacity 4000 l/second
Conssesion Period 25 years
FIRR 15,02 %
Guarantee Period 15 years since COD
© 2018 | PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Persero)
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RISK ALLOCATION FOR PPP PROJECT
Water Supply Project (BOT Scheme)
TYPE OF RISK ALLOCATION STAGE
Land acquistion
Change in law (specific) Construction, Operation
Demand risk Operation
Quality of raw water Operation
Quantity of raw water Operation
Political risk (including termination) Construction, Operation
Addition of land acquisition Pre-construction
Design risk Pre-construction
Permit risk Pre-construction
Sponsor risk (failed to achieve FC) Pre-construction
Construction risk Construction
Fluctuation risk of rate interest Construction
Limitation risk of construction space Construction
Cost overrun risk of construction Construction
Delay of construction Construction
Private
Change in law (general) Operation
Government
Operation and maintenance risk Operation
Inflation risk Operation Guaranteed by IIGF
Handover risk from Private to Government Operation
© 2018 | PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Persero)
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RISK SHARING POLICIES/PRACTICES
In Southeast Asia Countries
Phillipines Thailand Vietnam
The Government may provide any form of The risk will be allocated between public and 1. The risk should be allocated to the agent
support or contribution to solicited projects, private sectors, who is best to handle each who is best able to bear them or handle
such as, but not limited, to the following: risk of the project. The project agency has to them and which, therefore will reduce
1. Cost Sharing determine such risk sharing when conduct a their costs.
2. Credit Enhancements feasibility study. 2. Regarding risk allocation, there will be
3. Direct Government Subsidy spesifications in different levels.
4. Direct Government Equity a) In new PPP Decree (drafting), there
5. Performance Undertaking are some principles for risk
6. Legal Assistance allocation. Moreover, provision of
7. Security Assistance feasibility study also require
analysis for risk allocation
b) In circulars (following the New
Decree), specific key risks will be
identified
Phillipines use preferred risk allocation Thailand don’t use preferred risk Vietnam don’t use preferred risk allocation
matrix as reference since 2014. The allocation matrix as reference. Risk matrix as reference. Risk allocation has to be
Generic Preferred Matrix was adopted allocation has to be analysed during analysed during project preparation and in
by the ICC – Cabinet Committee on 7 project preparation and in the feasibility the feasibility study report. However, the risk
December 2010, published and updated study report. However, the risk allocation allocation has to be negotiated and
by the PPP Center. It is intended to be has to be negotiated and concluded on a concluded on a case-by-case basis in the
recommendatory and envisioned to case-by-case basis in the project contract. project contract.
serve as reference of the ICC and the
proponent agencies in the ICC review of
PPP projects.
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RISK MONITORING/MITIGATION
In Southeast Asia Countries
Phillipines Thailand
The PPP Center shall be responsible for the Once the investment contracts has been signed, the
coordination and monitoring of projects responsible Ministry of the project shall appoint the
implemented of projects implemented under Supervisory Committee, together with its duties which
Contractual Agreements or schemes authorized are:
under the Revised IRR of the Amended BOT 1. To monitor and supervise the project to ensure the
Law. Concerned Agencies shall periodically operations are conducted in accordance with the
submit to the PPP Center: investment contract
1. Information on the status of projects 2. To consider proposing approaches to resolving
implemented problems arising from project implementation to the
2. A copy of all unsolicited proposals & other project agency
related documents 3. To require that project agency/private contractual
The PPP Center is also mandated to guide the party to give an explanation or submit relevant
agency in the preparation & development of the documents
project and shall report to the Government, 4. To report operational results, problems and
President & the congress. approaches to resolving problems to responsible
Minister for acknowledgement
5. To consider amendments to the investment
contract.
PROJECT PURPOSES
Announcement of
PQ Result
Issuance of Bidding
document
Addendum of Issuance of final Bid
Bid document Document
Announcement Sigining of PPP
Bid Submission of winner Contract
5 years
10 Aug 2011 24 Feb 2012 28 Aug 2015 30 Sep 2015 25 Nov 2015 4 Feb 2016 21 Jul 2016 process
26 Aug 2011 4 Oct 2011 25 Feb 2013 7 Oct 2013 14 Aug 2015 29 Sep 2015 21 Jul 2016
Screening Issuance Submission of Issuance of Project update Issuance of Sigining of Guarantee
form from CA CTP guarantee LOI IPA Agreement and
application Recourse Agreement
Previously allocated
to Private
• 16 tapping points – Water meter
by Private
• Water meter to Reservoir -
Construct by MOPW and
operate by PDAB
• Reservoir – Distribution network
by PDAM
Capitalization
PPP
Contract
Water supply & Agreement
purchase
agreement
Cooperation
PDAB PPP Co. Agreement
Tariff (MOU)
Water supply & USD 0.23/m3
purchase
agreement
USD USD USD USD USD USD
0.32/m3 0.12/m3 0.25/m3 0.24/m3 0.27/m3 0.15/m3
5 Regencies
A B C D E and Cities
Financial
USD USD USD USD USD USD Support
0.64/m3 0.37/m3 0.69/m3 0.60/m3 0.64/m3 0.37/m3
Under direct
To support
State-owned
Enterprise
100%
Owned by
acceleration of
infrastructure
supervision of
Ministry of Finance
of Indonesia
(SOE) Government development in
of Indonesia Indonesia
MAIN ROLE:
As single window policy to evaluate, prepare and provide government guarantee for infrastructure
project under PPP scheme or other scheme based on government assignment.
Guarantee
Application Recourse Agreement
Package Risk Mitigation Plan
Guarantee Agreement
Multilateral
MOU Institutional Development
Development MIGA
Agency Guarantee Capacity
IDB - ICIEC
Islamic Corporation
MOU knowledge sharing initiative
for the Insurance of
Investment & Export
Guarantee Capacity
Credit
Bilateral
2 x 1000
LENGTH CABLE LENGTH
USD
2.80
MW 2047 KM
5935 KM BILLION
JAPEK II ELEV.
TOLL ROAD
36,4 KM
$1235
MILLION
CISUMDAWU
TOLL ROAD
60,27 KM BALIKPAPAN
SAMARINDA
TOLL ROAD
$646 99,3 KM
MILLION
$761
BATANG PANDAAN UMBULAN MILLION
SPAM SEMARANG CENTRAL JAVA KALENDER TOTAL
MALANG WATER INVESTMENT
BANDAR TOLL ROAD POWER PLANT TOLL ROAD SUPPLY TOLL ROAD
LAMPUNG 77,6 KM 2 x 1000 MW 38,2 KM VALUE
39,9 KM 4000 Lt/s
750 Lt/s
A regulation mandate
infrastructure guarantee
(PMK 260/2011); referal
transaction on PPP
project (infrastructure
guarantee) reviwed
regularly every 12
months for refinement
which involving related
stakeholders
Palapa Ring Project is the first PPP project with Availability Payment scheme in Indonesia
The projects are completed in less than a year and with the role of IIGF in facilitating the
projects and strong commitment from Contracting Agency
3 West Palapa Ring Project 4 Central Palapa Ring Project 5 East Palapa Ring Project
Backbone network across 5 cities in West Backbone network across 17 cities in Backbone network across 35 cities in
region of Indonesia: 1.122 Km sea and Central region of Indonesia: 1.676 Km East region of Indonesia 5.681 Km sea
land sea and land and land
ICT Sector
6 Batang Semarang Toll Road 7 Manado-Bitung Toll Road 8 Pandaan-Malang Toll Road
75 Km Toll Road from Batang to 39 Km Toll Road from Manado to Bitung 38 Km Toll Road from Pandaan to Malang
Semarang
$ 392 Million GA Effective $ 454 Million GA Effective
$ 853 Million GA Effective
Guarantee Period– 15 Years
Guarantee Period– 15 Years
Guarantee Period – 15 Years • Land acquisition advance fee • Land acquisition advance fee
• Land acquistion advance fee • Land Acquisition • Land Acquisition
• Land Acquisition • Limited Liquidity Fund • Limited Liquidity Fund
• Limited Liquidity Fund • Toll fee adjustment • Toll fee adjustment
• Toll fee Adjustment • Termination • Termination
• Termination Contracting Agency: MoPublic
Contracting Agency: MoPublic
Contracting Agency: MoPublic Work&Housing Work&Housing
Work&Housing
9 10 Jakarta-Cikampek (Elevated) 11
Balikpapan-Samarinda Toll Road Cisumdawu Toll Road
Toll Road
99 Km Toll Road from Balikpapan to 36 Km Toll Road from Jakarta to 60 Km Toll Road from Cileunyi to Dawuan
Samarinda Cikampek through Sumedang
Water Sector
Toll Roads Sector
© 2018
© 2018 | PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Persero)