The Ambell Company uses batteries from two different manufacturers.
Historically, 60% of the
batteries are from manufacturer 1, and 90% of these batteries last for over 40 hours. Only 75% of the
batteries from manufacturer 2 last for over 40 hours. A battery in a critical tool fails at 32 hours. Using
Baye's Theorem, What is the probability it was from manufacturer 2? (use 3 decimal places) *
(.4*.25)/(.6*.1+.4*.25) = 0.625 = 62.5%
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as a general rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
for any battery, it was either from manufacturer 1 (m1) or manufacturer 2 (m2)
so probability that any battery lasts less than 40 hours is:
P(< 40 hours) = P(m1 and < 40 hours) + P(m2 and < 40 hours)
= 60/100 * (1 - 90/100) + 40/100 * (1 - 75/100)
= 16/100
as a general rule, P(A given B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
so probability it was from manufacturer 2 is:
P(m2 given < 40 hours) = P(m2 and < 40 hours) / P(< 40 hours)
= (40/100 * (1 - 75/100)) / (16/100)
= (10/100) / (16/100)
= 5/8
= 62.5%
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It is estimated that 3% of the athletes competing in a large tournament are users of an illegal drug to
enhance performance. The test for this drug is 90% accurate. Using Baye's, Theorem, what is the
probability that an athlete who tests positive is actually a user? (use 4 decimal places only)
This is an exercise in conditional probability. You can use Bayes' Rule to solve this. However, I find that
it is much easier to just use the definition of conditional probability. In short I derived Bayes' Rule every
time I do this but it prevents me from making errors in more complex problems.
This is an exercise in conditional probability. For any two events A and B, where P(B) ≠ 0, you have the
conditional probability:
P( A | B ) = P( A ∩ B ) / P( B ) = P( B | A) * P(A) / P(B)
the above is read as: the probability of A given B is equal to the probability of A and B divided by the
probability of B.
Let D be the event the athlete used drugs
Let ~D be the event the athlete does not use drugs
Let + be a positive test
Let - be a negative test
We know
P(D) = 0.03
P(~D) = 0.97
P( + | D ) = 0.90
P( - | D) = 0.10
P( - | ~D ) = 0.90
P( + | ~D) = 0.10
Find P( D | +)
= P( + | D ) * P(D) / P(+)
Use The Law of Total Probability to find P(+)
For a set of events A1, A2, A3, ... , An where the Ai's are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and
for any other event B
P(B)
= P(B and A1) + P(B and A2) + ... + P(B and An)
= P(B | A1) * P(A1) + P(B | A2) * P(A2) + ... + P(B | An) * P(An)
P(+) = P( + | D) * P(D) + P( + | ~D ) * P(~D)
P(+) = 0.90 * 0.03 + 0.10 * 0.97
P(+) = 0.124
P( D | + )
= 0.90 * 0.03 / 0.124
= 0.2177419
If a player tests positive, there is only a 21.7% probability they have used drugs.
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drug users testing positive: 0.03*0.90 = 0.027
non users testing positive: 0.97*0.10 = 0.097
total testing positive 0.124.
proportion of users out of all positive tests:0.027/0.124 = 0.2177
probability that an athlete who tests positive is actually a user = 0.22 to 2 significant figures.
