CISE 3C 1 In school of 600

a
students, 360 are
girls. There
whom 200 are girls. are 320
19 of them Among the hockey players there hockey players, of
girls. Find the are 28
goalkeepers,
a probability that
student chosen at random is a girl
(ii) a
girl chosen at random plays
(ii) a hockey
hockey player chosen at random is a girl
(iv) a student chosen at random is a
goalkeeper
(v) a
goalkeeper chosen at random
boy is a
(vi) a male
hockey player chosen at random is a
(vii) a goalkeeper
hockey player chosen at random is a male goalkeeper
(viii) two students chosen at random are
both goalkeepers
(ix) two students chosen at random male
are a
goalkeeper and a female
goalkeeper
(x) two students chosen at random are one boy and one girl.
2 The table below gives the numbers of offenders in England and Wales
sentenced for indictable offences, by type of offence and type of sentence, in
1989 (numbers in thousands).

Offence Discharge Probation Fine Jail Other Total

Violence 9.5 3.9 20.6 9.0 12.7 55.7

Sexual offences 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.8 7.3

0.8
26.2 62.6 29.9 32.1 182.2
Theft 31.4
8.7 1.0 0.8 11.3
Motoring 0.5 0.3
41.3 I1.9 7.9 82.5
Other 12.0 9.4
135.6 54.2 54.3 339.0
Total 54.2 40.7

DOurce: Social Trends 22, 1992, CSO.)

adapted from Table 12.19.
 randomly selected person indicted for
(i) Find the probability that a
an
offence will be
la) discharged
(b) put on probation
(c) fined
(d) sent to jail
for a motoring offence
(e) sent to jail
sent to jail given that the person has committed a motorino
ftence
(g) guilty of a motoring offence given that the person is sent to jail

(ii) Criticise this statement.

Based on these figures nearly 26 of the country's prison population are
there for motoring offences.
3 100 cars are entered for a road-worthiness test which is in two parts,
mechanical and electrical. A car passes only if it passes both parts. Half
the cars fail the electrical test and 62 pass the mechanical. 15 pass the
electrical but fail the mechanical test.
Find the probability that a car chosen at random
) passes overall
(ii) fails on one test only
(ii) given that it has failed, failed the mechanical test only.
4 Two dice are thrown. What is the probability that the total is
7
(ii) a prime number
(iii) 7, given that it is a prime number?
5 A cage holds two litters of rats. One
litter comprises three females and four
males, and the other comprises two females and six males. A random
selection of two rats is made.
Find, as fractions, the probabilities that the two rats are
(i) from the same litter
(ii) of the same sex
(ii) from the same litter and of the same sex
(iv) from the same litter given that
they are of the same sex.
MEI
6 In school
a
of 400 students, 250 play a musical instrument and in
the choir. i
The
probability that a student chosen at random neither plays a mus cal
instrument nor sings in the choir
0How many is
students both sing in the choir and play a musica
instrument?
i) Find the
but does not probability that a student chosen at random sig*
hoir
(i) Find the play an instrument.
probability that member of the choir
a random does
not
play an
instrument. the choir chosen
chose at
or
 (v) Find the
probability that someone who
does not
chosen at random, is in the play an instrument,
choir.
7 A bag P contains three red balls. A
second bag Q contains red balls and
three black balls. two

() A bag is chosen at random and ball

one is withdrawn. Find the
probability that this ball is red.
This ball remains outside the
bag.
(ii) A bag is again chosen at
random (it is not known whether this is the
same bag as before or
not) and one ball is withdrawn. Find the joint
probability that both this ball and the one previously withdrawn are red.
(i) If they are both red, what is the
probability that bag P was used on both
occasions?

O &C
8 In child's game there should be seven
a
triangles, three of which are blue
and four of which are red, and eleven squares, five of which are blue
and six of which are red. However, two pieces are lost.

Assuming the pieces are lost at random, find the probability that they are
() the same shape
(i) the same colour
(ii) the same shape and the same colour
(iv) the same shape given that they are the same colour.
MEI
0.4, P(B) 0.7
probabilities given by P(A)
=

9 A and B are two events with =

and P(An B) = 0.35.

Find P(A | B) and P(B | A).

(ii) Show that the events A and B are not independent.

dangerous occupation. On a quark hunt, there is a

10 Quark hunting is a
be
hunter is killed. The quark is twice as likely to
probability of that the both survive.
is a probability of that
killed as the hunter. There
this table of probabilities.
(i) Copy and complete
Hunter dies
Hunter lives Total

Quark dies

Quark lives

Total

Find the probability that die

the hunter and the quark
(ii) both dies
hunter lives and the quark
(i) the dies.
that the quark
hunter lives, given
(iv) the
 with milk, 20% tea with 1.

shop 70% of customers

order tea
milk take
lemon
11 n a tea

and 10% tea with

neither. Of those taking
tea with
sugar, of
so

lemon take sugar,

and of those taking tea with
with
those taking tea with 1S chosen at randa
A customer om.
lemontake sugar.
neither milk nor diagram and use to f.
itit to
(i) Represent the
information given
on a tree
find the
takes sugar.
probability that the
customer

that the customer takes milk

or sugar or bothn.
ii) Find the probability
customer takes milk. Hence in
sugar and
(ii) Find the probability
that the d
customer takes milk given that the custome
the probability that the
takes sugar.
[MEI
and the Strollers, meet each other for
12 Every year two teams, the Ramblers
that in years when the Ramblers win
quiz night. From past results it seems
the probability of them winning the next year is 0.7 and in years when the
Strollers win, the probability of them winning the next year is 0.5.
It is not possible for the quiz to result in the scores being tied.

The Ramblers won the quiz in 1996.

() Draw a probability tree diagram for the three years up to 1999.
(Gi) Find the probability that the Strollers will win in 1999.
(ii) Ifthe Strollers win in 1999, what is the probability that it will be their
first win for at least three years?
(iv) Assuming that the Strollers win in 1999, find the smallest value of n such
that the probability of the Ramblers winning the quiz for n consecutive
years after 1999 is less than 5%.

[MEI
13 On my way home from work each
evening I have to pass through three sets
of traffic lights in the city centre. The
probabilities that I pass through them
without having to stop are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.7
each set of lights operates
respectively. You may assume tha
()
independently of the others.
Drawa tree diagram to illustrate the
situation.
() Find the
probability that I do not have to stop at any of the three sets o

lights.
(i) Find the probability that I have to stop at just one set of
(iv) Given that I have to lights.
stop at just one set of lights, find the
that I have to stop the first set of
at probability
(v) It is decided lights.
to
change the probability of passing through the first lign s
without having stop from 0.2 to p. I find that
to
this change reduced the
probability found in part (iv) to 0.5. Calculate
p.
[MEI
 14 There are 90 players in
tennis club. Of these, 23 are
a

seniors. 34 of the seniors and 10 of the juniors, the rest are

juniors are male. There are 8 juniors
who are left-handed, 5 of whom are male.
There are 18 left-handed players
in total, 4 of whom are female seniors.
G) Represent this information in a Venn
(ii) What is the probability that
diagram.
a) a male player selected at random is eft-handed?
(b) a left-handed
player selected at random is a female junior?
(c) a
player selected at random is either a junior or a female?
d) a
player selected at random is right-handed?
(e) a
right-handed player selected at random is not a junior?
(f) a
right-handed female player selected at random is a junior?

KEY P O I N T S

1 The probability of an event A,

P(A) = 2{A)
n(E)
where n(A) is the number of ways that A can occur and n(E) is the total
number of ways that all possible events can occur, all of which are equally
likely.
2 For any two events, A and B, of the same experiment,

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AN B).

mutually exclusive (i.e. where the events do

not
Where the events are
since P(ANB) is now equal to zero, the
overlap) the rule still holds but,
equation simplifies to:

P(AUB) =
P(A) + P(B).
two or more mutually
exclusive events,
3 Where experiment produces
an
events sum to 1.
the probabilities of the separate

1
4 P(A)+ P(A') =

A
that
occurring given
event
the probability of event B
5 P(BA) means

has already occurred.

P(ANB)
P(B|A) P(A)
event B occur, in that order, is
that event A and then
6 The probability
P(A)x PB | A).
P(B| A)
= P(B|A) = P(B).
independent of event A,
7 If event Bis
 Exercise 3C (Page 113)
1 (i) 0.6 (i) 0.556 (i) 0.625
(iv) 0.047 (v) 0.321
es (vi) 0.075
(vii) 0.028 (viii) 0.0022 (ix) 0.000 95
(x) 0.48
2 () (a) 0.160 (b) 0.120 (c) 0.400 (d) 0.160
(e) 0.003 () 0.088 g) 0.018
() Those sentenced for
motoring offences would
probably have shorter sentences than others so
are
likely to represent less than 2% of the prison
population at any time.
3 (i) (ii) 42 (ii)
100 100
65
4 (i) (ii)5
6 12 (ii)
5 (i)5 (ii) 21 (iii) (iv) 15
6 (i) 30 (ii) 40 (iii) (iv) 15
7 ()0 (iii)
+0 19
8 (i) 0.497 (ii) 0.477 (iii) 0.222 (iv) 0.466
9 () 0.5 and 0.875
(i) P(B| A) # P(B) and P(A | B) # P(A) so the
events A and B are not
independent.
10 (i)

ble.
Hunter dies Hunter lives
Quark dies
12
Quark lives

ii) (ii)(iv)
11 (i)

Milk
Sugar
No sugarI
5
0.7

0.2 Sugar
Lemon
No sugar

0.1
20
Sugar
Neither
9 No sugar
20

0.525
(ii) 0.805 (ii) 0.42; 0.8
 12 (i)
1997 1998 1999
0.7 R
0.7 R
0.3 S
R<
0.5 R
0.7 0.3 S-
0.5 -S

0.7 R
0.5 R<
0.3 0.3 S
S
0.5 s 0.5-R
0.5 S

(ii) 0.372 (ii) 0.395 (iv) 8

13 (i)
0.3-S
S
0.6
0.7 NS
0.3 S
. 8

0.4 NS
0.7 NS

0.3-S
0.6 S
0.2 0.7 NS
NS
0.3 S
0.4
NS
0.7 NS

(ii) 0.056 (ii) 0.332 (iv) 0.675 (v)

14 (i)

(90)
M
10 28

6
29
4

LH

key:
J=Juniors
M Males
LH =
Left-handed players
(ii) (a) (b)(c) (d)(e) 2 (f)