Software is Eating Bio

Software is Eating Bio

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  Bio Fund
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  Bio startups thatoperate like software startups The emerging macro trend: Bio 2.0 Bio in 2015 is like software in 2005 Software is eating Bio Cloud biology emergence of low CapEx startups Software at the center Machine learning, cloud computing Minimize FDA Risk DTC, digital health, consumer genomics, etc
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  Storage cost-performance andcomputing cost-performance Moore’s law: cost of storage, compute ⇒ zero 0.01 0.1 1. 10. 100. 1000. 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Dollars($) Compute cost ($ per 1 million transistors) Storage cost ($ per gigabyte)
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  Silicon content: $20-22 NANDFlash $18-20 Display $15-17 Applications Processor $8-10 DRAM $10-13 Baseband $4-5 RF and FEM $3-4 Power Amplifier $3-4 PMIC $3-4 Combo-chip (WIFI/BT/FM) $3-4 Touch Controller $3-4 GPS $3-4 Image Sensors Silicon content: $9-10 Camera Module $7-11 Touch Panel $5-6 Battery (Li Polymer) $3-5 HDI PCB $1-2 Camera Lens $2-3 Gyroscope/Accelerometer $0.70-0.80 Audio Codecs $0.50-0.60 Speaker IC Substrate $1-2 LCD Drive IC $0.70-0.80 MEMs Microphone $1.00-1.50 LCD Drive IC Moore’s law: cost of storage, compute ⇒ zero Source: Nomura Securities, Gartner 2013 report.
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  Side benefits ofMoore’s law: cost of sensors ⇒ zero Source: Qualcomm IntegratedSensors,UserExperiences Ambient Light Accelerometer Magnetometer Ambient Light Accelerometer Magnetometer Ambient Light Accelerometer Magnetometer Ambient Light Accelerometer Magnetometer Ambient Light Accelerometer Magnetometer Gyroscope Proximity Gyroscope Proximity Gyroscope Proximity Pressure RGB Pressure RGB Pressure RGB Gyroscope Proximity Temperature Humidity Hall Effect Temperature Humidity Hall Effect Heart Rate Fingerprint 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015+ GALAXY 1 GALAXY S2 GALAXY S3 GALAXY S4 GALAXY S5
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  Beyond Moore’s law:cost of sequencing ⇒ zero Source: Nature, 2014 Cost of genome sequencing. Next generation sequencers enter the market. Moore’s law for computing costs. The price of sequencing a whole human genome hovers around $5,000 and is expected to drop even lower. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 Cost(thousandsUS$)
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  Putting these trendstogether This is disrupting traditional biotech = SOFTWARE IS EATING BIO Compute Sensors Biology + +
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  Bio 2.0 isnot Biotech BIOTECH STARTUPS SOFTWARE STARTUPS Subject Uncontrollable organisms Perfectly determinate code Environment Poorly understood, natural Well understood, artificial Approach Indefinite, random Definite, engineering Regulation Heavily regulated Basically unregulated Cost Expensive ( > $1B per drug) Cheap (a little seed money) Team High-salaried, unaligned lab drones Committed entrepreneurial hackers & BIO 2.0 From Peter Thiel’s Zero to One
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  Eroom’s law: $/drugexponentially increasing Source: Nature Biotechnology $10M $100M $1,000M $10,000M 1949.97 1970.05 1990.11 2010.28 Development$perdrug
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  Bio in 2015is like software in 2005 SOFTWARE IS EATING BIO EROOM’S = NO MOORE’S = YES The emerging macro trend: Bio 2.0
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  Three emerging areas CloudBiology Computational MedicineDigital Therapeutics
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  Slow and expensiveto develop Toxic side effects FDA regulated Traditional therapeutics IMAGE: Champlax
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  Title Text Subtitle text Digitaltherapeutics for chronic disease Mobile enables traction, patient success, and a new model for insurance companies Digital health & digital therapeutics IMAGE: Omada Health
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  Large capital outlay Poorreproducibility Empirically driven doesn’t scale The four horsemen of Eroom’s law Traditional biology
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  Title Text Subtitle text Biologythat works like programming: Cloud experiments run through software Cloud biology IMAGE: Emerald Therapeutics
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  Tsunami of data Floodof new drugs Traditional medicine
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  Title Text Subtitle text Personalizedcancer treatments based on patient tumor genetic screenings Computational biomedicine
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  New a16z fundfor Bio 2.0 Vijay Pande new GP: uniquely suited for Bio 2.0 a16z approach applied to Bio Bio 2.0 software + cloud bio, w/o traditional FDA risk
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  Title Text Subtitle text
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  Vijay Pande: Bio2.0 background Chemistry Camilleand Henry Dreyfus Professor, Stanford Univ. Thomas Kuhn Paradigm Shift Award, American Chemical Society Teacher-Scholar Award, Dreyfus Foundation Physics AB Princeton University, 1992, PhD MIT, 1995 | Michael and Kate Bárány Award for Young Investigators, Biophysical Society Fellow, American Physical Society Computer Science: Founder, Folding@home Distributed Computing | MIT TR100 Guinness World Record, Folding@home First to a Petaflop Netxplorateur of the Year Biology Chair, Biophysics, Stanford University Medical School Delano Award for Computational Biosciences, American Soc. for Biochem. and Molecular Biology | Irving Sigal Young Investigator Award, Protein Society
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  Title Text Subtitle text Crowdsourced computational biology for biomedicine Anticipated the future Cloud before Loudcloud GPU computing before CUDA Crowdsourcing before wikipedia Founding Director, Folding@home Approximately 2,000,000 people have donated computer time. More processing power than Amazon Web Services, Guinness World Record FOLDING@HOME
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  Title Text Subtitle text $900M Nextgeneration approaches to therapeutics for infectious disease Computation at its heart Regulatory Innovations: drug repurposing Co-founder, Globavir BioSciences
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  Vijay Pande –Bio & IT entrepreneur ADVISOR TO STARTUPS IN BIO Acumen Pharmaceuticals (Alzheimer’s Disease) Counsyl (Carrier testing) Globavir (Infectious Disease) EMPLOYEE #1 AT NAUGHTY DOG Started at 15 years old writing computer games Naughty Dog later sold to Sony ADVISOR TO STARTUPS IN IT Clearspeed (high speed compute hardware) Discovery Engine (Semantic search) Numerate (Computational Drug Design) Omnipod (Software for pharma) OpenEye (Software for pharma) Pharmix (Computational Drug Design) Protein Mechanics (molecular simulation) Schrodinger (Software for pharma) Stack IQ (Cloud software stack)