USING THE CROPWAT MODEL TO ANALYSE THE EFFECTS

OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFED CROPS IN NIGER

Katiella Ma Moussa and Moustapha Amadou1

Respectively, Faculty of Sciences, University of Abdou Moumouni, BP 10662, Niamey, Niger, Tel: +227 733072, email cadres@intne.ne / kactiella@yahoo.fr ; and
Faculty of Agronomy, University of Niamey, BP 10960, Niamey, Niger, Tel: +227 733238, Fax: +227 733943, e-mail:
moustapha_a@yahoo.com / cresa@intnet.ne

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section

Page
Preface

Executive summary

Introduction

Background

Objectives and methodology of the study

Results and discussion

Conclusion and policy recommendations

References

10

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Table

Page

Characteristics of selected districts, Agui and Gaya

11

Length of growing period, mean yield, date of sowing and date of

harvesting and for main crops in the two selected districts, 2003

11

CROPWAT outputs for millet

12

CROPWAT outputs for cowpea

12

CROPWAT outputs for sorghum

12

A1

Cowpea Agui

13

A2

Millet Agui

13

A3

Sorghum Agui

14

A4

Millet Gaya

14

A5

Sorghum Gaya

15

A6

Cowpea Gaya

15

Variation of soil moisture deficit (SMD) according to crop and

location for reference period (19601990) and 2025

16

Figure
1

PREFACE
The reports in this special series are the result of a multi-country research activities conducted under
the GEF funded project: Climate Change Impacts on and Adaptation of Agro-ecological Systems in
Africa. The main goal of the project was to develop multipliable analytical methods and procedures
to assess quantitatively how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa, predict how these
systems may be affected in the future by climate change under various global warming scenarios,
and suggest what role adaptation could play. The project has been implemented in 11 countries:
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Niger and Senegal in west Africa; Egypt in north Africa; Ethiopia
and Kenya in east Africa and South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe in southern Africa. The study
countries covered all key agro-climatic zones and farming systems in Africa. This is the first analysis
of climate impacts and adaptation in the Africa continent of such scale and the first in the world to
combine cross-country, spatially referenced survey and climatic data for conducting this type of
analysis.
The analyses reported in this series focus mainly on quantitative assessment of the economic impacts
of climate change on agriculture and the farming communities in Africa, based on both the crosssectional (Ricardian) method and crop response simulation modeling. The cross sectional analysis
also allowed for assessing the possible role of adaptation. Moreover, the project employed riverbasin hydrology modeling to generate additional climate attributes for the impact assessment and
climate scenario analyses such as surface runoff and streamflow for all districts in the study
countries.
The Centre for Environmental Economics and policy in Africa (CEEPA) of the University of
Pretoria coordinated all project activities in close collaboration with many agencies in the involved
countries, the Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD) Department of the World Bank, the World
Bank Institute (WBI), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Yale University, the
University of Colorado, and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI). The project
received supplemental funding from TFESSD, Finnish TF, NOAA-OPG, and CEEPA. We are
grateful for the invaluable contributions of all these institutions and all individuals involved in this
project. All opinions presented in this report series and any errors in it are those of the authors and
do not represent the opinion of any of the above listed agencies.
Rashid Hassan, Project Leader
CEEPA, University of Pretoria

Ariel Dinar, Project Manager

ARD, World Bank

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study used the CROPWAT model to predict the soil moisture deficit (SMD) with climate
change scenarios and assess the crop water requirement (CWR) and the variation in yield of the main
rainfed crops in Niger. Two districts, Agui and Gaya, were selected to conduct the SMD analysis in
relation to climate change under different climate and soil characteristics and cropping patterns.
Three types of data were collected and used for the selected districts. Meteorological data were
acquired from the national meteorological service. These included temperatures for 1961 to 1990,
rainfall for the same period, and evapotranspiration for the period 1978 to 1998 for Gaya and 1978 to
2002 for Agui. Soil data were supplied by INRAN (Agronomic Research Institute). Crop yields,
LGPs (length of growing period), and dates of sowing and harvesting for the selected crops (millet,
sorghum and cowpea) were provided by the National Service for Agricultural Statistics.
The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) coupled to
the SCENGEN (SCEnario GENerator) software of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change) was used to predict the impact of climate change on the soil water availability and water
uptake by crops. The HadCM2 (Hadley center unified model 2 transient, UK) GCM was selected
and the actual annual average temperature and rainfall figures for 1961 to 1990 were used as the
basic scenario. The choice of 2025 was justified by the availability of demographic projections for
Niger at this period.
The study results show a significant difference between the scenario with climate change in 2025
and without climate change for Agui in terms of soil water availability and soil moisture deficit but
this difference is not significant for Gaya where the decrease in rainfall will maintain adequate soil
moisture to support production of subsistence crops.
These findings have important implications for Nigers agricultural policy and the countrys
strategies for adapting to climate variability and change. Cropping systems may need to change as
irrigation will be required for crops that are not adapted to Sahelian conditions. Small farmers should
be helped to combine into big units (cooperatives) to increase the irrigation efficiency.

1. Introduction
With the predicted decline in agricultural yields as a result of global warming, the pressure on
natural habitats and biological resources from agricultural practices is expected to increase. This is
of particular concern in the developing world and especially Africa, which has worse starting
conditions and limited adaptation options for African farmers and agricultural production systems.
Reduced yields will increase the demand for converting land to agricultural use, extracting water for
irrigation, introducing more new and exotic plant and animal species and intensifying the use of
chemical inputs. This pressure on the land will increase pollution and environmental damage such as
erosion, and seriously accelerate biodiversity loss and extinction.
Further warming is expected to reduce crop productivity adversely, and this will have serious
consequences because agriculture and agro-ecological systems are especially prominent in the
economies of African countries and particularly of Niger and the systems tend to be less capital and
technology intensive. It is in this context that the GEF accepted and funded the project Regional
Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts on and Adaptation of Agro-ecological Systems in Africa
for which Niger was selected as one of a sample of 11 African countries.

2. Background
Niger is a landlocked country in the Sahel more than 700 km from the sea, with a surface area of
1,267,000 km2 and a population of about 10 million. The climate is typically Sahelian, with two
seasons: a long dry season of eight months and a short rainy season of four months which usually
starts in May or June. The rainfall is low, variable and undependable. The cropping area is limited to
the area with a length of growing period (LGP) of 75 to 150 days, which is classified as semi-arid.
The semi-arid part of Niger is a region that faces very serious challenges for developing crop
production. Cultivating crops and keeping livestock are the most important activities in the rural
zone, practiced by 90% of the total population. But harsh environmental conditions high
temperature, low rainfall and low soil fertility and pests and diseases restrict the range of crops
grown. In general, technology based agriculture has not come to Niger on a significant scale
(ICRISAT/FAO 1996). Most of the agricultural growth that has occurred is due to the prevalence of
extensive farming systems, not yield increases. Low rainfall as a result of climate change, land
depletion, the very low level of external input, very little investment in irrigated agriculture, and the
lack of adaptive rural credit schemes constitute the major constraints on crop production in the
Sudano-Sahelian zone of Niger.
At the agro-ecological level, two main production systems can be distinguished as a function of LGP
and rainfall:
Rainfed mixed agro-pastoral system
This is the system used in the Sahelian zone. It is characterized by a short rainy season with a rainfall
lower than 600mm and an LGP of 60 to 100 days. Grains grown here are predominantly earlymaturing varieties. The major constraints on this system are high temperature, uneven rainfall
distribution and low soil fertility.

Rainfed mixed cropping system

This is the system used in the northern Sudan savanna zone. It is characterized by an intermediate
rainy season with 600 to 800mm of rainfall, and an LGP of 100 to 125 days. Medium to latematuring varieties of crops are grown for a dual purpose (grains and fodder). The major constraints
on this system are low soil fertility and high pest and disease occurrence.
At the regional level, three main typical production systems can be distinguished as a function of
LGP, rainfall and soil types: the extensive millet-based system (EMBS), the semi-intensive milletbased system (SIMBS) and the sorghum/millet-based system (SMBS).
At the district level, apart from the irrigated systems that are found along the rivers and streams
throughout the country, seven main production systems can be distinguished. Five of them belong to
the millet based system, and two to the sorghum/millet-based system.
3. Objectives and methodology of the study
The objective of the study was to use the CROPWAT model (FAO 1979, 1998) to predict the soil
moisture deficit (SMD) with climate change scenario and assess the crop water requirement (CWR)
and the variation in yield of the main rainfed crops in Niger.
3.1 Soil moisture deficit and climate change scenario
Two districts, Agui and Gaya, were selected to assess the degree of SMD caused by climate
change. Climate and soil characteristics, including other farming and cropping patterns, are
summarized in Tables 1 and 2.
Three types of data were collected and used for the selected districts. Meteorological data were
acquired from the national meteorological service. These included temperatures for 1961 to 1990,
rainfall for the same period and evapotranspiration for the period 1978 to 1998 for Gaya and 1978 to
2002 for Agui. Soil data were supplied by INRAN (Agronomic Research Institute). Crop yields,
LGPs, dates of sowing and harvesting for the selected crops (millet, sorghum and cowpea) were
provided by the National Service for Agricultural Statistics.
The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) coupled to
the SCENGEN (SCEnario GENerator) software set up by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change) during the second appraisal report (Houghton et al. 2001) was used in this study to
predict the impact of climate change on the soil water availability and water uptake by crops. The
HadCM2 (Hadley center unified model 2 transient, UK) GCM was selected and the actual annual
average temperature and rainfall figures for 1961 to 1990 were used as the basic scenario and IS92A
(reference scenario) to generate temperature and rainfall figures for 2025. The choice of 2025 was
justified by the availability of demographic projections for Niger at this period. The countrys oldest
meteorological stations in the MAGICC/SCENGEN square degrees were identified and selected in
order to use the serial climate data available since 1960.
At this step of its development, the MAGICC/SCENGEN can only give temperature and rainfall for
2025 for most of the African regions. The temperature and rainfall generated by the model for Agui
(125'
N175'
N and 25'
75'
E) and Gaya (75'
125'
N and 25'
75'
E) were recorded. The
evapotranspiration for 2025 was obtained by using the PENMAN-Monteith method2 with the
2

http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/x0490e06.htm

temperatures for the corresponding period. The other required parameters for 2025 were used as
defined in the CROPWAT model. The yields of the main crops, the rainfall and the LGPs were
considered.

3.2 Crop water requirement and yield of main rainfed crop

Districts with meteorological stations since 1960 (Birni NKonni, Gaya, Main Soroa, Agui,
Tahoua, Tillabery and Mirriah) were selected to conduct the CWR study. Except for the Gaya
district, all the districts have LGPs, T (temperature), rainfall, ETo (evapotranspiration) and soil
characteristics similar to those of Agui. The same dates of sowing and harvesting were used for
each crop for all the districts. The growth cycle for each crop is longer in the Gaya district, as shown
in Table 2. The total cropped areas for each crop, and maximum/actual crop yields (millet, sorghum
and cowpea) for each district were provided by the National Service for Agricultural Statistics. The
Ky (yield reduction) factor from the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) was used for each.
Among the CROPWAT model outputs, the CWR, ETc (crop evapotranspiration), and Ks (stress
factor) were used for crop yield analysis.

4. Results and discussion

4.1 Effect of climate change on the soil moisture deficit in two different districts
The MAGICC/SCENGEN outputs predict that in 2025 the amount of rainfall will decrease and
temperature will increase in both Agui and Gaya. The CROPWAT outputs such as TAM Lost(mm),
RAM User(mm), Total Rain(mm), Efct.Rain(mm), Etc(mm), Etc/Etm (%) and considered as crop
yield parameters are shown in Tables A1 to A5 for the three selected crops and locations. The SMD
variation for each crop and location, with and without climate change, are shown in Figure 1.
The trends of SMD are the same for both the reference period and 2025 but different in Agui and
Gaya. Figure 1 shows that the trend of the SMD is more critical at Agui than at Gaya for both the
reference period and for 2025. For all the selected crops, the SMD will be increased in 2025. The
SMD is almost the same for the two scenarios during the first crop growth stage and does not exceed
the evapotranspiration. The SMD decreases drastically during the vegetative phase and maturity. The
CROPWAT analysis also shows that there is a significant decrease in crop yield for all crops and
locations. This decrease is more significant at Agui which will have less rainfall in 2025. In Gaya
the decrease in the millet yield is not significant as there will be enough rainfall to maintain soil
moisture during the crops maturity.
These results seem to match the climate change scenario as predicted in the literature, but further
discussion is needed to bring them in line with the projects objectives and needs.

4.2. Effect of crop water requirements on the yield of the main rainfed crops
4.2.1 Crop water use for millet (Table 3)
Millet is the most common rainfed crop in Niger and the subsistence nature of the crop is well
documented. Millet farming suits almost all the studied districts. The highest value of ETo was
7

observed in the Tahoua district with 741mm. This district is in fact located in the central northern
part of the country at the limit of the Sahara Desert and characterized by a high diurnal temperature
during the rainy season. Main Soroa, located in the eastern part of the country, shows the highest
Etc owing to the high evaporation demand linked to a high temperature and a low hygrometry. There
is some variation in CWR between districts, given that millet is a crop which does not need a lot of
water and the most commonly cultivated variety has a short cycle in all the districts except Gaya,
where varieties with a long cycle are used. The maximum yields were obtained in Gaya (815kg/ha),
where the annual average rainfall is 800mm, and Agui (757 kg/ha), where cropping systems are
more intensive, with higher inputs.
4.2.2 Crop water use for cowpea (Table 4)
The ETo of the cowpea growing period was above 400mm in all the districts. Tahoua and Main
Soroa have the highest rates, with 816 and 747 mm/period respectively. The CWR is almost the
same for all the districts, around 200mm and 300mm, except for Tahoua (325mm). The response
coefficients due to water stress are low everywhere except in Tahoua (0.96) and Mirriah (0.89). This
is explained by a poor rainfall distribution in time (during the various growth phases of the crop) that
caused a critical drying up of the soils usable moisture. Thus the yield reduction can be considered
significant or not at harvest according to the phase when the SMD has been critical.
4.2.3 Crop water use for sorghum (Table 5)
Sorghum being a water demanding crop, only the area of Gaya that has favorable meteorological and
edaphic conditions presents a optimal yield. Here, the need for crop water is almost entirely satisfied
(CWR is 46mm for the whole cycle). In fact, the rainy season covers the sorghum cycle and the
clayey-sandy and clayey-loamy soil has a fairly good retention capacity. The areas of Tillabery,
Konni and to some extent Agui have favorable valleys and alluvial plains where sorghum is farmed,
but the high evaporation demand (ETo above 500 mm) increases the evapotranspiration of the crop
and therefore the demand for water. The additional water CWRs of the sorghum for the areas
mentioned above are 114mm, 154mm, 121mm respectively. This water deficit thus can be seen to
affect the yield: only 363kg/ha in Tillabery, 351kg/ha in B. Konni and 190kg/ha in Aigu. The very
low yield in Agui is explained by the type of soil, which is subject to overcropping.

5. Conclusion and policy recommendations

The major crops covered in this report are cultivated in mixed cropping systems in all the districts
studied. This mixture of crops allows us to forecast the risks related to the amount and timing of the
rainfall during the cropping season as all these selected crops are exclusively cultivated during the
rainy season. There is no chance for irrigation, even if the rainfall deficit is critical, as farmers
cannot afford the required input. In all the districts the fertile areas in the field are allocated to cash
crops such as okra, tobacco, sesame, galingale (an aromatic ginger-like root used for medicine) and
maize. These cropping systems are common and known at national level as a confirmed strategy for
adapting to climate variability and change.
According to the above, the CROPWAT model is applicable in Niger country conditions even if
irrigation is not common, with less than 60,000ha being used for irrigated agriculture.
The study results show a significant difference between the scenario with climate change (2025) and
without climate change for Agui in terms of soil water availability and soil moisture deficit but this
8

difference is not significant for Gaya where the decrease in rainfall with this scenario (2025) will
maintain adequate soil water availability for producing subsistence crops. For all these districts,
except Gaya, there is little chance of irrigation for subsistence crops in the future.
These findings may have important implications for Nigers agricultural policy. Based on these
intermediate conclusions, the following recommendations can be made:
1. Strategies for adapting to climate variability and change should be formulated and adopted at
community, district and national level
2. Cropping systems should be improved by changing to irrigation for crops that are not adapted to
Sahelian conditions.
3. Small farmers should be helped to combine into big units (cooperatives) to increase the irrigation
efficiency.
4. Water resource management should be recognized as the main constraint on crop productivity in
the country and steps taken to improve it.

REFERENCES
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), 1979. Yield response to water. Authors, Doorenbos J &
Kassam AH. Irrigation and Drainage Paper 33. Rome, Italy.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), 1998. Crop evapotranspiration : Guidelines for
computing crop water requirements. Authors, Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D & Smith M.
Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Rome, Italy.
Houghton JT et al., (eds), 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
ICRISAT/FAO (International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics / Food and Agriculture
Organization), 1996. The world sorghum and millet economies: Facts, trends and outlook.
FAO, Rome, and ICRISAT, Patancheru, India.

10

Table 1: Characteristics of selected districts, Agui and Gaya

Agui

Gaya

Geographical area

Sahelian zone

Sudan savanna zone

Type of system

Short season SAT, rainfed mixed

agro-pastoral

Intermediate season SAT, rainfed

mixed cropping

Length of growing period (days)

60100

100125

Soil (Hcr %)

Sandy (9)

Loamy (22)

Rainfall (mm)

< 600

600800

Based system

Semi-intensive millet-based system

(SIMBS)

Sorghum/Millet-based system
(SMBS)

Main crops

Millet, sorghum, cowpea,

groundnut

Sorghum, millet, cowpea,

groundnut

Intensity of crop PS

Lowmedium

Low

Cash crops

Reasonable

Limited/Reasonable

Role of trees

Fertility management

Fruit, firewood

Role of livestock

Manure, transport, animal traction

Corralling, transport

Major constraints

Rainfall, high temperature, soil

fertility

Soil fertility

Livestock shortage in farming

systems, priority for crop
production without any specific
pasture area
Sub Systems

Reduction of fallow, pest and

disease management

Millet-cowpea-sorghum-groundnut
low external input

Sorghum-millet-cowpea-groundnut

Table 2: Length of growing period, mean yield, date of sowing and date of harvesting and for
main crops in the two selected districts, 2003
Gaya

Agui

Cycle (days)

Yield (kg/ha)

Cycle (days)

Yield (kg/ha)

Millet

120

Sorghum

140

604

90

401

596

105

185

Cowpeas

120

124

100

108

Date of sowing

Date of harvesting

Gaya

Agui

Gaya

Agui

Millet

10 May

15 June

10 Sept

15 Sept

Sorghum

30 May

30 June

20 Oct

15 Oct

Cowpeas

30 May

30 June

20 Oct

10 Oct

11

Table 3: CROPWAT outputs for millet

District

ETo

Kc

mm
B. Konni

581

ETc

Ky

mm
1.00

380

Ya

Ym

Area cropping

kg/ha

kg/ha

intensity, %

502

543

45

1.20

Ks

0.94

Eta

CWR

mm

mm

356

196

Gaya

451

1.00

305

1.20

746

851

50

0.90

275

153

Main S.

682

1.00

440

1.20

372

524

71

0.76

334

232

Agui

536

1.00

363

1.20

483

757

51

0.70

254

181

Tahoua

741

1.00

416

1.20

298

312

53

0.96

399

251

Tillabery

636

1.00

432

1.20

412

428

60

0.97

419

216

Mirriah

597

1.00

405

1.20

408

461

55

0.90

365

203

Notes: ETo (reference crop evapotranspiration), ETc (evapotranspiration of the crop), Ky (yield reduction factor), Ya
(actual yield of the crop), Ym (maximum yield of the crop), Ks (stress factor), CWR (crop water requirement), ETa
(actual evapotranspiration).

Table 4: CROPWAT outputs for cowpea

District

ETo

Kc

mm
B. Konni

633

ETc

Ky

Ya

Ym

Area cropping

kg/ha

kg/ha

intensity, %

1.15

142

314

36

mm
1.15

502

Ks

Eta
mm

0.52

261

CWR
mm
251

Gaya

497

1.15

396

1.15

171

317

30

0.60

240

198

Main S.

747

1.15

452

1.15

51

87

13

0.64

289

298

Agui

581

1.15

461

1.15

134

304

23

0.51

237

231

Tahoua

816

1.15

427

1.15

122

189

32

0.69

294

325

Tillabery

697

1.15

496

1.15

207

216

28

0.96

476

278

Mirriah

650

1.15

494

1.15

189

216

29

0.89

440

258

Ks

Eta

CWR
mm

Table 5: CROPWAT outputs for sorghum

District

ETo

Kc

mm

ETc

Ky

mm

Ya

Ym

Area cropping

kg/ha

kg/ha

intensity, %

mm

B. Konni

650

1.00

450

1,25

351

385

18

0.93

418

154

Gaya

519

1.00

362

1,25

676

800

15

0.88

317

46

Main S.

771

1.00

473

1,25

111

160

10

0.76

357

280

Agui

592

1.00

408

1,25

190

309

10

0.69

282

121

Tahoua

832

1.00

486

1,25

275

276

11

1.00

486

321

Tillabery

697

1.00

492

1,25

363

409

10

0.91

448

114

Mirriah

666

1.00

456

1,25

198

248

12

0.84

383

195

12

APPENDICES
Table A1: Cowpea Agui
Date
30/6
4/7
14/7
24/7
3/8
13/8
23/8
2/9
12/9
22/9
2/10
12/10
Total

TAM lost
(mm)
Rf.
2025
30
30
35.6
35.6
49.6
49.6
63.6
63.6
77.6
77.6
91.6
91.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
10
100
100

RAM user
(mm)
Rf. 2025
13.5 13.5
16
16
22.3 22.3
28.6 28.6
34.9 34.9
41.2 41.2
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
48.8 48.8
56.3

Total rain
(mm)/dcd
Rf. 2025
00
00
55.4 42.7
62.1 51.2
68.1 57.3
72.3 59.5
73.9 57.2
71.7 49.9
64.9 38.3
53.5 24.2
38.1 10.6
20.5 1.4
4.6
585 392.3

Efct. rain
(mm)/dcd
Rf. 2025
00
00
7.5
8.1
24.4 26.1
25.4 27
37.3 39
40
40
40
40
40
38.3
40
24.2
38.1 10.6
20.5 1.4
4.6
318 254.8

Etc
(mm)/dcd
Rf. 2025
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.3
4.5
4.7
5.8
6
6.4
6.5
6.3
6.4
6.2
4.8
6.1
2.6
3.8
0.9
1.4
406 355

Etc/Etm
(%)
Rf. 2025
100 100
100 100
99.9 99.2
100 100
100 99.9
99
98.4
92.2 90.4
78.4 75.9
69.7 63.7
66.5 43.6
62.4 24
52.4
79.4 67.6

SMD
(mm)
Rf.
2.5
2.5
2.4
3.1
4.5
16.1
34.1
43.6
47
49.8
65.3
80.8

Etc
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.1
1.9
2
3.2
3.4
4.5
4.8
5.8
6
5.7
5.8
5.5
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.4
5
5.3
2.6
3.9
0.7
1.4
454.4

Etc/Etm
(%)
rf
2025
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
99.4 97.8
91.1 86.7
81.7 77.7
76.9 71.6
75.4 47.9
77.5 26.3
61
85.3

SMD

2025
2.7
2.7
2.6
3.3
4.7
17.8
36.3
4
62.9
79.4
92.2

Table A2: Millet Agui

Date
15/6
24/6
4/7
14/7
24/7
3/8
13/8
23/8
2/9
12/9
22/9
2/10
12/10
Total

TAM lost
(mm)
Rf
2025
30
30
46.2
46.2
64.2
64.2
82.2
82.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

RAM user
(mm)
Rf
2025
15
15
23.9 23.9
34.5 34.5
45.9 45.9
57.8 57.8
59.8 59.8
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
63.3 63.3
66.7

Total rain
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
00
00
48.6 33.1
55.4 42.7
62.1 51.2
68.1 57.3
72.3 59.5
73.9 57.2
71.7 49.9
64.9 38.3
53.5 24.2
38.1 10.6
20.5 1.4
4.6
633.7

Efct. rain
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
00
00
15.3 16.9
18.8 20.5
24.8 26.6
38.2 40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
38.3
40
24.2
38.1 10.6
20.5 1.4
4.6
360.2

13

rf
1.9
1.9
1.9
3.2
4.5
16.7
33.5
44.5
49.4
51
53.2
68.4
84.3

2025
2.1
2.1
2
3.4
5.3
20
37.9
47.7
52.9
68
83.3
94.2

Table A3: Sorghum Agui

Date
30/6
4/7
14/7
24/7
3/8
13/8
23/8
2/9
12/9
22/9
2/10
12/10
Total

TAM
lost(mm)
Rf
2025
30
30
38
38
58
58
78
78
98
98
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100

RAM
user(mm)
Rf
2025
18
18
22.5 22.5
33.3 33.3
43.4 43.4
52.7 52.7
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
60

Total rain
(mm)/dcd
Rf
2025
00
00
55.4 42.7
62.1 51.2
68.1 57.3
72.3 59.5
73.9 57.2
71.7 49.9
64.9 38.3
53.5 24.2
38.1 10.6
20.5 1.4
4.6
585 392

Efct. rain
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
00
00
5.6
6.1
18.4 19.8
19.1 20.3
28.6 30
39.5 40
40
40
40
38.3
40
24.2
38.1 10.6
20.5 1.4
4.6
294 231

Etc
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
1.9
2
1.9
2
1.8
1.9
2.4
2.5
3.5
3.6
4.5
4.7
5.5
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
2.8
4.4
1.1
2
395 333

Etc/Etm
(%)
rf
2025
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
97.4 95.9
89.7 85.7
82.8 57.3
75.2 29.9
53.5
78.2 64.1

SMD
(mm)
rf
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.4
3.5
4.5
15.4
29
37.5
43.7
62.9
84.2

2025
2
2
1.9
2.5
3.6
5.6
17.9
33.3
56.2
76.6
91.2

Table A4: Millet Gaya

Date
10/5
15/5
25/5
4/6
14/6
24/6
4/7
14/7
24/7
3/8
13/8
23/8
2/9
12/9
Total

TAM lost
(mm)
Rf
2025
42
42
54.6 54.6
79.8 79.8
105 105
130 130
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140

RAM user
(mm)
Rf
2025
21
21
27.8 27.8
42.3 42.3
57.8 57.8
74.2 74.2
82.6 82.6
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
84
86.8 86.8
91.5 91.5
96.1 96.1

Total rain
(mm)dcd
rf
2025
00
00
26.1 25.4
31.5 30.9
36.8 36.4
42.3 42.2
48.3 48.6
54.6 55.4
60.8 62.1
66.4 68.1
70.4 72.3
71.8 73.9
69.5 71.7
62.8 64.9
51.6 53.5
693 705

Efct. rain
(mm)dcd
rf
2025
00
00
7.7
7.7
18.9 18.7
20.2 19.8
31.6 30.5
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
438 437

14

Etc
(mm)/dcd
rf 2025
2
2
1.9 1.9
1.8 1.8
2.6 2.5
3.8 3.7
4.9 4.7
5.2 5
5
4.8
4.9 4.6
4.7 4.5
4.6 4.5
3.9 3.9
2.8 2.8
1.8 1.8
479 465

Etc/Etm
(%)
rf
2025
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
99.6 100
99.2 100
100 100
100 100
99.9 100

SMD
(mm)
Rf
6.2
1.9
1.8
2.6
3.8
8.3
20.8
32
41.2
48.9
55.1
58
50.8
33

2025
6.2
1.9
1.8
2.5
3.7
6.1
15.9
24.4
31.3
37
42
44.7
37.
20.5

Table A5: Sorghum Gaya

Date
30/5
4/6
14/6
24/6
4/7
14/7
24/7
3/8
13/8
23/8
2/9
12/9
22/9
Total

TAM lost
(mm)
Rf
2025
54
54
72
72
108 108
144 144
180 180
180 180
180 180
180 180
180 180
180 180
180 180
180 180
180 180

RAM user
(mm)
Rf
2025
32.4 32.4
42.5 42.5
61.9 61.9
79.9 79.9
96.5 96.5
93.3 93.3
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
91.8 91.8
110 110
128 128

Total rain
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
00
00
36.8 36.4
42.3 42.2
48.3 48.6
54.6 55.4
60.8 62.1
66.4 68.1
70.4 72.3
71.8 73.9
69.5 71.7
62.8 64.9
51.6 53.3
36.5 38.1
672 687

Efct. rain
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
00
00
7.2
7
17.4 16.8
18.4 17.5
27.2 25.9
36.4 34.5
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
36.5 38.1
383 380

Etc
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
2.3
2.2
3.2
3.1
4.1
3.9
4.9
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
3.7
3.9
3.1
3.3
441 435

Etc/Etm
(%)
rf
2025
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100

SMD
(mm)
rf
7.2
1.8
1.7
2.3
3.2
4.1
9.8
17.5
23.9
29.3
34.1
34.3
31.4

Etc/Etm
(%)
rf
2025
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
98.4 99.8
93.3 96.9
87.7 92.1
85.8 89.5
98.3 99.2
96
97.5

SMD

2025
7.2
1.7
1.6
2.2
3.1
3.9
7.4
13.1
18.2
23
28.1
29.4
26.6

Table A6: Cowpea Gaya

Date
30/5
4/6
14/6
24/6
4/7
14/7
24/7
3/8
13/8
23/8
2/9
12/9
Total

TAM lost
(mm)
Rf
2025
42
42
51.8 51.8
71.4 71.4
91
91
111 111
130 130
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140
140 140

RAM user
(mm)
Rf
2025
18.9 18.9
23.3 23.3
32.1 32.1
41
41
49.8 49.8
58.6 58.6
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
69.3 69.3
79.8 79.8

Total rain
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
00
00
36.8 36.4
42.3 42.2
48.3 48.6
54.6 55.4
60.8 62.1
66.4 68.1
70.4 72.3
71.8 73.9
69.5 71.7
62.8 64.9
51.6 53.5
635 649

Efct. rain
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
00
00
9.6
9.3
23.2 22.4
24.4 23.3
35.4 33.6
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
373 369

15

Etc
(mm)/dcd
rf
2025
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
3
2.9
4.2
4
5.3
5
5.6
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
4.1
4.1
2.3
2.4
431 426

rf
6.6
2.4
2.3
3
4.2
12.1
28.1
42
51.8
57.6
58.6
48.8

2025
6.6
2.3
2.2
2.9
4
9.4
22.6
35
45.2
52.7
55.8
47.1

Figure 1: Variation of soil moisture deficit (SMD) according to crop and location for reference
period (19601990) and 2025
Millet Gaya

Millet Agui
SMD (mm)

100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

13

11

SMD (mm)

80
60
40
20
0

Decades

Decades

Cowpea Gaya

Cowpea Agui
SMD (mm)

SMD (mm)

80
60
40
20

100
50
0
1 2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Decades

SMD (mm)

SMD (mm)

30
20
10

7 8

9 10 11 12

Sorghum Agui

P.ref

40

Decades

H2025

Sorghum Gaya

3 4

100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

11

13

Decades

Decades

16