Risk Assessment And Control
MODULE 3
RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
Analyze and estimate risk
Risk is the determination of likelihood and severity of the credible
accident/event sequences in order to determine magnitude and to
priorities identified hazards.
It can be done by qualitative, quantitative or semi-quantitative
method.
RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
Qualitative Analysis
A qualitative analysis uses words to describe the magnitude
of potential severity and the likelihood that those severity will
occur.
These scales can be adapted or adjusted to suit the
circumstances and different descriptions may be used for
different risks.
This method uses expert knowledge and experience to
determine likelihood and severity category.
RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
Semi-Quantitative Analysis
In semi-quantitative analysis, qualitative scales such as those
described above are given values.
The objective is to produce a more expanded ranking scale
than is usually achieved in qualitative analysis, not to suggest
realistic values for risk such as is attempted in quantitative
analysis.
RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
Quantitative Analysis
Quantitative analysis uses numerical values (rather than the descriptive
scales used in qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis) for both
severity and likelihood using data from a variety of sources such as past
accident experience and from scientific research.
Severity may be determined by modeling the outcomes of an event or
set of events, or by extrapolation from experimental studies or past data.
Severity may be expressed in terms of monetary, technical or human
impact criteria, or any of the other criteria.
EXAMPLE OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
What-If-Analysis
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA),
Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP),
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
WHAT-IF-ANALYSIS
FAILURE MODE AND EFFECT ANALYSIS (FMEA)
HAZARD AND OPERABILITY STUDY (HAZOP)
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
EVENT TREE ANALYSIS
RISK ASSESSMENT – BASIC REQUIREMENTS
Identify a job to be done.
Break it down into tasks.
Identify the hazards.
Identify what could happen / go wrong.
Decide on what controls are needed to prevent this from happening.
PRE-ASSESSMENT – INFORMATION GATHERING
◆ Information on the facilities, processes and activities of the
organisation, including:
Area Map
Site plan(s); own and neighbour
Process flow-charts
Inventory of materials (raw materials, chemicals, wastes,
products, sub-products)
Toxicology and other health and safety data
Monitoring data
PRE-ASSESSMENT – CLASSIFYING WORK ACTIVITIES
◆ Geographical areas within / outside the premises;
◆ Stages in a production process, or in the provision of a
service;
◆ Defined the tasks (eg. driving, window cleaning);
◆ Identify the working groups;
◆ Land use; previous property use, future use.
DOCUMENT REVIEW
◆ Reports of Accidents, Accident Investigation and Audits.
◆ Medical Reports, Sick Leave certificates, etc.
◆ Information from Publications:
Acts, Regulations and Codes of Practice
Statistics
Handbooks
Chemical Safety Data Sheet (CSDS)
INSPECTION AND OBSERVATION
Types of Inspections:
statutory inspection,
periodical inspection,
formal and informal inspection.
Documentation –
Checklist
Inspection worksheet (standard approach and record).
Activities - to involve supervisors, managers and employees.
Inspection outcome - to include actions and timeframes.
Ensure follow up on action - to ensure effectiveness.
INSPECTION AND OBSERVATION
Checklist and Inspection Worksheet (Standard Approach and
Record):
◆ Involve Supervisors, Managers and Employees
◆ Outcome: Actions and Timeframes
◆ Follow Up
Can consider in term of likelihood and consequences and enter into a
Qualitative Risk Table.
EXPOSURE MONITORING
◆ Types of Monitoring:
Area Monitoring
Personal Monitoring
◆ Monitoring of:
Noise
Heat
Radiation
Air contaminants
Chemicals etc.
BIOLOGICAL MONITORING
◆ Regular measuring activity where selected validated indicators of the
uptake of toxic substances in the human body are determined in
order to prevent health impairment.
◆ This form of monitoring could entail examination of, for example,
blood, urine, saliva and expired air.
◆ Common features in the health or medical surveillance of persons
exposed to hazardous environments especially complying to legal
requirement i.e. USECHH Regulations 2000 etc.
MEDICAL SURVEILLANCE
◆Health Surveillance is warranted if:
Substance is used in workplace
Substance is hazardous
Evidence or reason to suspect injury
Atmospheric monitoring insufficient
RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
LIKELIHOOD OF AN OCCURRENCE
This value is based on the likelihood of an event occurring.
You may ask the question “How many times has this event happened in the
past?”
Assessing likelihood is based worker experience, analysis or measurement.
Likelihood levels range from “most likely” to “inconceivable.”
For example, a small spill of bleach from a container when filling a spray
bottle is most likely to occur during every shift.
Alternatively, a leak of diesel fuel from a secure holding tank may be less
probable.
LIKELIHOOD OF AN OCCURRENCE
Guidelines for Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control , 2008
SEVERITY OF HAZARD
Severity of the Hazard
Information obtained about work activities is a vital input to risk assessment.
When seeking to establish potential severity of harm, the following should also
be considered:
Part(s) of the body likely to be affected;
Nature of the harm, ranging from slightly to extremely harmful:
1) Slightly harmful, e.g.:
Superficial injuries; minor cuts and bruises; eye irritation from dust.
Nuisance and irritation (e.g. headaches); ill-health leading to temporary
discomfort.
SEVERITY OF HAZARD
2) Harmful, e.g.
Lacerations; burns; concussion; serious sprains; minor
fractures.
Deafness; dermatitis; asthma; work related upper limb
disorders; ill-health leading to permanent minor disability.
3) Extremely harmful, e.g.
Amputations; major fractures; poisonings; multiple injuries;
fatal injuries.
Occupational cancer; other severely life shortening diseases;
acute fatal diseases.
SEVERITY OF HAZARD
Guidelines for Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control , 2008
DETERMINE RISK
The risk from the hazard should be determined by
estimating the potential severity of harm and the
likelihood that harm will occur.
Level of Likelihood x Level of Severity =
Risk Level
Guidelines for Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control , 2008
DECIDE IF RISK IS TOLERABLE
One simple method for estimating risk levels and for
deciding whether risks are tolerable.
Risks are classified according to their estimated likelihood
and potential severity of harm.
RISK MATRIX ASSESSMENT
Severity (S)
Likelihood
(L) 1 2 3 4 5
5 5 10 15 20 25
4 4 8 12 16 20
3 3 6 9 12 15
2 2 4 6 8 10
1 1 2 3 4 5
RED High Risk
YELLOW Medium Risk
GREEN Low Risk
Guidelines for Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control , 2008
RISK ASSESSMENT (DOSH)
No. Hazard Which Likelihood Severity Risk Recommended
Can cause level Control Measures
/Effect
1 Goods • Impacting 4 5 20 State your
movement passer-by (High) recommendations
using causing
forklifts. bodily injury
• Oil leaks on
floors
causing trip
and fall
injuries
RISK MATRIX ASSESSMENT
SHELL RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX
RISK ASSESSMENT (SHELL RAM)
Likelihood (L)
Severity (S)
Risk (S x L)
No. Key Activities Hazard Consequence Control (Barriers) Recovery
Measures
1 Airwell cleaning Slip, trip & fall Slight injury P-1 B P-1B Briefing prior to First Aid
work
PPE
PREPARE RISK CONTROL ACTION PLAN
Risk categories shown form the basis for deciding whether improved
controls are required and the timescale for action.
The outcome of a risk assessment should be an inventory of actions, in
priority order, to devise, maintain or improve controls.
Hazards assessed, as “High Risk” must have immediate actions, to
resolve risk to life safety and or the environment.
Individuals responsible for required action, including follow up must be
clearly identified.
A further detail risk assessment method may require such as
quantitative risk assessment as means of determine suitable controls
measures.
THE RISK-BASED CONTROL PLAN
Guidelines for Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control , 2008
THE RISK-BASED CONTROL PLAN
The action plan should be reviewed before implementation, typically by
asking:
Will the revised controls lead to tolerable risk levels?
Are new hazards created?
Has the most cost-effective solution been chosen?
What do people affected think about the need for, and practicality of,
the revised preventive measures?
Will the revised controls be used in practice, and not ignored in the
face of, for example, pressures to get the job done?
DONE FOR THIS MODULE!
