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Latihan 7 Sept

The document contains calculations and expected values for modifying an electric/gas processor. It compares modifying the processor for electricity versus gas in multiple scenarios, accounting for success and failure probabilities as well as previous step outcomes. The overall recommendation is to choose modifying the processor for gas.

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Ayda Khadiva
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31 views6 pages

Latihan 7 Sept

The document contains calculations and expected values for modifying an electric/gas processor. It compares modifying the processor for electricity versus gas in multiple scenarios, accounting for success and failure probabilities as well as previous step outcomes. The overall recommendation is to choose modifying the processor for gas.

Uploaded by

Ayda Khadiva
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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0.

75
$10

Electricity 0.25
-$3
Electric / Gas $7
Processor

0.6 $15

Gas
-$7
0.4
$6

Expected Value of Electric Expected Value of Gas


EV = (0.25 x -3) + (0.75 x 10) EV = (0.4 x -7) + (0.60 x 15)
$6.75 $6.20
= (0.4 x -7) + (0.60 x 15)
0.25 Design Success
$6

Electricity 0.75 Design Fail


-$7
Modifying Electric / -$3.75
Gas Processor
Design Success
0.75 $10

0.25 Design Fail


Gas
-$12

$4.50

Expected Value of Electric Expected Value of Gas


EV = (0.25 x 6) + (0.75 x -7) EV = (0.75 x 10) + (0.25 x -12)
-$3.75 $4.50
= (0.75 x 10) + (0.25 x -12)
0.25 Design Success + failure from previous step
$6 -3

Electricity 0.75 Design Fail + failure from previous step


-$7 -3
Modifying Electric / -$6.75
Gas Processor
Design Success + failure from previous step
0.75 $10 -7

0.25 Design Fail + failure from previous step


Gas
-$12 -7

-$2.50

Expected Value of Electric Expected Value of Gas


EV = (0.25 x 3) + (0.75 x -10) EV = (0.75 x 3) + (0.25 x -19)
-$6.75 -$2.50

Choose Gas
+ failure from previous step
$3

+ failure from previous step


-$10

+ failure from previous step


$3

+ failure from previous step


-$19

= (0.75 x 3) + (0.25 x -19)

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