Forecasting Exercises
Uploaded by
ScribdTranslationsForecasting Exercises
Uploaded by
ScribdTranslationsForecasting exercises
A department store realizes that in a period of four months,
The best forecast is derived using 40% of the actual sales during the month.
most recent, 30% from two months ago, 20% from three months ago, and 10% from earlier
four months. Estimate the forecast for month 5 if the actual sales were:
=( ∗.) +( )
∗. (+ ) (+
∗. ) ∗. = .
= .
Assume that sales for month 5 turned out to be 110. Then, the
forecast for month 6 would be.
MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 Month 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6
100 90 105 95 110
=( ∗.) +( )
∗. (+ )∗. ( + ) ∗. = .
= .
2. Suppose that the long-term demand for the product under study is
relatively stable and a smoothing constant (α) of 0.05 is considered
appropriate. Suppose that last month's forecast was 1,050 units. If
the actual demand was 1,000, instead of 1,050, determine the forecast for the
current period.
=( +. ( ∗ − ) )= .
CURRENT PERIOD FORECAST = 1047.5
3. Estimate the forecasts for the indicated periods in the following cases
presented by a company, if it is known that the period taken for forecasting
it is for 3 months, apply the simple moving average.
PRONSTC = 24.333
PRONSTC = 25.666
PRONSTC = 51.333
